Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0607z, 16/07/04.

Today's runs (except JMA) show low pressure close to the UK for the middle
of the week. There are considerable differences with regards to track and
intensity, but as usual it looks like northern and western areas will bear
the brunt of any unsettled weather. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under light southerlies and SSW'lies, due to a high to the east
and a trough to the west. Thr trough crosses the UK at T+144, bringing
SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere, winds are much
lighter. A ridge then moves over the UK at T+168, bringing westerlies and
WNW'lies.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows a low to the west of Ireland, with southerlies for
most. The low moves northwards at T+144, leaving a trough over the UK. As a
result, winds are NW'lies for western Scotland and Northern Ireland, with
SW'lies or southerlies elsewhere.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Low pressure is located to the SW of Ireland, leading to southerlies and
SSE'lies over the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from +5C over northern
Scotland to +10C over Kent. The low fills to the SSW of Ireland at T+144,
maintaining a southerly flow over the UK. By T+168 the low ends up over
Scotland, with westerlies to the south. By day 8 the low deepens to the NE,
with westerlies and WNW'lies for the UK. There's little change on day 9 as
the low moves northwards and merges with a low near Iceland. Day 10 sees
SW'lies across the UK, lightest over England and Wales due to a weak ridge.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows the UK between a high to the ENE and a low to the
WSW, with SE'lies and southerlies. 850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over
northern Scotland to +9C over southern England. The low becomes a trough
over Ireland at T+144. with southerlies and SW'lies for the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A large highe extends from Northern Ireland to Denmark and the Baltic,
leading to easterlies for England and Wales, with westerlies for northern
Scotland. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over NW Scotland to +8C over SE
England. The high builds east of Scotland at T+144, bringing easterlies for
most. The winds become easterlies and SE'lies on day 7 as the high builds
over Shetland, followed by more of the same on day 8.