..... night min last night (15th/16th) 16.6degC. Dew points atm around 17
or 18degC.

Hope them weather presenters are getting the 'knowing winks' ready ;-)


--
Martin Rowley: data via -
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/metindex.htm
Bracknell (Wooden Hill/Tawfield), Berkshire
NGR: SU 854 667 Elev: 80m
Lat: 51DEG23MIN30SEC(N): Long: 00DEG46MIN28SEC(W)

Martin,

The forecast temperatures used to be way out for Penzance under these
conditions, typically close to the sea temperature (16) whilst in Mount's
Bay the mist often clears for a while (as it did particularly yesterday).
They 5 day forecasts used to be a joke in the spring here. During hot May
spells they were often 8 degrees out, and on a few occasions 10 degrees
(E.g. 15 forecast as opposed to 25 actual !). This May/June they were much
better.

The last 2 days
15th Forecast 18, Actual 20.4
16th Forecast 19, Actual 19.3

Still slighly on the low side, but much better than previous years.

I can only assume there has been some change in the way the figures are
generated.

Graham
Penzance


"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
Day maximum today 23.3degC (dew point currently / 18Z = 15.0degC).

The 7th day over 21degC this month, and the 32nd so far this year.

Don't normally look at the various web-based forecasts, but noticed
today that the high for Bracknell (Met O and BBC ... same feed), was
just 20degC. This is therefore 3degrees below actual. We used to notice
(when we were hand-amending stuff for specific customers), that the web
data were on the 'cold' side in these situations, so it may be that that
bias is still there. The forecast maxima for the next 4 days a
20, 21, 19, 23 (Saturday to Tuesday), so it'll be interesting to see how
these pan out.

Martin.

Day maximum today 23.3degC (dew point currently / 18Z = 15.0degC).

The 7th day over 21degC this month, and the 32nd so far this year.

Don't normally look at the various web-based forecasts, but noticed
today that the high for Bracknell (Met O and BBC ... same feed), was
just 20degC. This is therefore 3degrees below actual. We used to notice
(when we were hand-amending stuff for specific customers), that the web
data were on the 'cold' side in these situations, so it may be that that
bias is still there. The forecast maxima for the next 4 days a
20, 21, 19, 23 (Saturday to Tuesday), so it'll be interesting to see how
these pan out.

Martin.




"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...
.... night min last night (15th/16th) 16.6degC. Dew points atm around
17
or 18degC.

Hope them weather presenters are getting the 'knowing winks' ready ;-)

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
...
Martin,

The forecast temperatures used to be way out for Penzance under these
conditions, typically close to the sea temperature (16) whilst in
Mount's
Bay the mist often clears for a while (as it did particularly
yesterday).
They 5 day forecasts used to be a joke in the spring here.
I can only assume there has been some change in the way the figures
are
generated.

Graham
Penzance

.... something we used to bang on about year after year, that many
populated areas along the coast had data driven from a 'sea' grid point
within the model: hence the temperature problems. When I left (last
August), they were beginning to re-map these anomalies out of the
system, so it is good to see that things have improved for you.

Martin.

....Warmest day of July so far with day maximum of 24.6degC. Cloudy
morning - thick SC, with a period of thick AS above (just on the edge of
developments further east), then gradual breaking of cloud to CUSC
through afternoon - fine/warm sunshine with temperatures responding
accordingly.

.... as regards below:

"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...

Don't normally look at the various web-based forecasts, but noticed
today that the high for Bracknell (Met O and BBC ... same feed), was
just 20degC. This is therefore 3degrees below actual. We used to
notice
(when we were hand-amending stuff for specific customers), that the
web
data were on the 'cold' side in these situations, so it may be that
that
bias is still there. The forecast maxima for the next 4 days a
20, 21, 19, 23 (Saturday to Tuesday), so it'll be interesting to see
how
these pan out.


.... an error today of 4C in day maxima; the minimum also 3C too low
(forecast 12degC, actual 15degC).

All this despite the actual weather (broken cloud/sunshine symbol) being
essentially correct, so it looks as if the cold bias is still there.
(Incidentally MetCheck and TWO only did marginally better with indicated
maxima around 21degC.)

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley: data via -
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/metindex.htm
Bracknell (Wooden Hill/Tawfield), Berkshire
NGR: SU 854 667 Elev: 80m
Lat: 51DEG23MIN30SEC(N): Long: 00DEG46MIN28SEC(W)

"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...

Don't normally look at the various web-based forecasts, but noticed
today that the high for Bracknell (Met O and BBC ... same feed), was
just 20degC. This is therefore 3degrees below actual. We used to
notice
(when we were hand-amending stuff for specific customers), that the
web
data were on the 'cold' side in these situations, so it may be that
that
bias is still there. The forecast maxima for the next 4 days a
20, 21, 19, 23 (Saturday to Tuesday), so it'll be interesting to see
how
these pan out.

Just to bring these up to date and tabulate:-
Forecast issued
Friday morning Actual maximum Error

Friday: 20 23 -3
Saturday: 20 25 -5
Sunday: 21 21 0
Monday: 19 23 -4

(Won't bother with Tuesday as at 5-days these things are more fairy-land
than otherwise).

Also note, the actual *weather* (as noted by the symbols on the various
days) WAS correct, so it's not a pure weather/temperature mis-match.

Neither is it an updating problem. The forecast on the Met Office web
site issued at 0607GMT this morning for *today* was for full sunshine
and a day max of 19degC. The actual today has been partial sunshine and
a day max of 23, an error of -4degC.

Which goes to prove what some of us have been banging on about these
output .... nice pictures, don't make too many plans based on the output
though. (No smiley required).

Martin.