Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0557z, 17/07/04.

Today's runs show low pressure close to the UK as the weekend approaches,
although the runs differ wildly with regards to the position and track. As
ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Cyclonic southerlies cover the UK, due to a low to the NW of Ireland. A
second low forms over the North Sea at T+144, bringing ESE'lies for Scotland
and westerlies for much of the UK. The chart for day 7 shows lows to the WSW
and ENE of the UK, with SW'lies for England and Wales, SE'lies for Northern
Ireland and NNW'liws for Scotland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows a low west of Ireland and a trough over Scotland.
To the north, winds are SE'lies, with SW'lies elsewhere. The low fills over
Scotland at T+144, bringing westerlies and WNW'lies for the UK.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Moderate SW'lies and WSW'lies cover the UK as the result of a low to the NW/
850hPa temperatures vary from +3C over Wales to +6C over NE Scotland and
Norfolk. SW'lies continue for northern areas at T+144; England and Wales lie
under a ridge with much lighter winds. The ridge becomes a high over England
and Wales on day 7, with SW'lies and WSW'lies persisting for Scotland and
Northern Ireland. Westerlies and SW'lies affect the whole of the UK on day 8
as a new low lies to the NW, followed by westerlies and WNW'lies on day 9 as
the low deepens and moves eastwards. Day 10 sees a weak ridge to the west,
with NW'lies for all.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a low to the west bringing warm southerlies for all.
850hPa temperatures range from +7C over NW Scotland to +15C over Kent. The
winds become SW'lies at T+144 as the low fills to the west of Scotland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
As with the other runs, low pressure is close to the UK - this time to the
WNW of Scotland. As a result, southerlies cover the UK, with 850hPa
temperatures from +7C over NW Scotland to +10C over much of England. A weak
ridge brings westerlies and SW'lies at T+144, followed by SSW'lies and
southerlies on day 7 as the ridge moves away. Day 8 sees a trough move
across the UK, with WSW'lies and SW'lies following behind.

Note: Due to an unfortunate collision in timing between the Kent County Show
and my duties at the Wolf Conservation Trust, I'll be leaving around 6:30
tomorrow morning - there will be no analysis as a result.