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Old July 20th 04, 06:21 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th August 2004

Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for losses or damage
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for his
own actions at all times.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPRESSIONS TO THE NORTH-WEST WITH SECONDARIES CROSSING THE SOUTH. COOL
PERIOD FROM 4TH TO 9TH. FLASH ANTICYCLONE CROSSING ON 8TH AND 9TH.

The general pressures situation for the period 1st to 10th August shows
LP to the W and NW of Scotland. A mild SW wind covers the country.
Small secondary depressions are embedded in the airstream which cross
the British Isles to the south, near the Channel. HP over France
suggests that the SE of England will be dryer, (except from 5th to 8th
when secondary depressions cross to the south of the country) and the NW
of the country will be wetter.

The run of weather starts on 1st with LP to the NW and W of Scotland.
Cyclonically curved isobars run from S Ireland up to E Scotland. A HP
ridge runs from the Azores, along the Channel, across SE England into
the North Sea and this drifts slowly E'wards. Surface winds are SW in
the west and north-west of the country, but light and variable in the
south and south-east. Fronts lie from N/S down W Scotland, W Wales and
SW England. Winds are strongest to the W of Scotland. Coolest in the
NW of the country and warmest in the S and SE of England.
On 2nd, LP near S Iceland has a secondary depression coming towards SW
Ireland from the Atlantic. This should move quickly ENE or NE in the
strong upper winds towards the North Sea by the end of the day. HP lies
to the E of the country and covers the SE and E of England. A warm
front lies W/E from Ireland into the North Sea. Winds are mostly S,
light in the E and NE, but stronger to the NW and SW of Ireland.
Coolest in the W and NW of the country, but warmer in the S and SE of
England.
On 3rd, LP lies to the S of Iceland and has a trough E'wards towards SW
Norway. HP lies well to the S of Britain so that mostly W winds cover
the country. Fronts lie from NE/SW to the W of Ireland and some
remaining fronts cover N England and S Scotland, drifting ENE with the
wind. Winds may be strongest near NE Scotland Coolest weather is to the
NW of the country and warmest to the SE of England.
On 4th, a chain of LPs runs from SW Iceland to N and NE England. A
small ridge of HP stretches from the Azores to SW Ireland and another HP
area lies to the NE of Britain. A secondary depression out in the
Atlantic to the S of the Icelandic LP moves quickly towards S Ireland.
An occluded front lies SW/NE from N Scotland towards Norway and a cold
front lies NNE/SSW from N England to Biscay. A further front from the
oncoming secondary stretches SW'wards towards the Azores. W winds cover
the S half of the British Isles and SE winds scrape the NE of
Scotland. The strongest winds lie to the NE of England and to the NW of
Ireland.
On 5th, a fairly deep depression lies to the N of Scotland, (probably
having two LP centres) and a secondary depression lies near the
Channel to the SE of England. Winds are S in the extreme east of the
country and NW to the west of Ireland. Fronts cover the S North Sea
and stretch WSW through the secondary depression in the Channel,
SW'wards into the Atlantic. Coolest in NW and warmest in SE. Note
that the 500mb winds are strong from the SW.
On 6th, LP lies to the NW of the country and a small secondary LP out
in the Atlantic moves towards the British Isles. The Azores HP has a
ridge stretching along the Channel into the S North Sea. Winds are W or
SW across the country. Fronts lie out in the Atlantic well to the W of
Ireland. Coolest weather in the N and warmest in the S. Strongest
winds lie well to the W of Scotland.
On 7th, LP lies near Iceland has a broad trough SE'wards towards
France. The secondary depression has reached the Irish coast. Winds
are W in the south-west of England and SE up the east coast of Scotland
and England. Otherwise winds are light and variable. A cold front
runs southwards from Iceland down to the W of Ireland. A warm front
stretches SE'wards from the S of Ireland towards Biscay. Coolest in the
N and warmest along the S coast.
On 8th, LP near Iceland with a weak secondary LP lying near SW England
and behind it, an area of HP lying S/N to the W of Ireland. Relatively
HP covers France. Fronts run from SW Norway SW'wards through SW
England and NW Spain. Coolest in the NW and W, warmest over SE and E
England.
On 9th, a HP cell has developed over SE England with LP to the NW of the
country. Mild S winds flow over W'ern areas. The strongest winds may
appear in the SW of the country. Coolest weather is well to the W of
Scotland and warmest air extends from the S coast up towards N England.
On 19th, a complex area of LP is approaching W Scotland. The Azores HP
has a ridge to Brittany and a further HP cell over France moving away
E'wards. Winds over the country are SW. Strongest winds lie to the W of
Scotland. Fronts run from W/E across N Scotland and further front run
SE'wards from S England. Note that the upper winds are strong from the
SW.

You will probably notice that the hot sunny weather is still missing
from this weather period, too. So far, the long term view of British
weather doesn't show any prospect of continuous, dry, sunny weather
until well into September. There may be short periods of warm weather
in the meantime, but that is mainly the anticyclonic SW-type
(warm-moist). The continent, however - well away from the British
Isles - can enjoy generally dry anticyclonic-SE-weather during October,
when HP generally stretches from Greece up to Scandinavia.

Cheers, Keith


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