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incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for his
own actions at all times.
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CHANGEABLE WESTERLIES IN THE NORTH. MUGGY SECONDARY DEPRESSIONS
INTO THE SOUTH.

The general pressure situation for the period 11th to 20th August shows
a depression to the NW of the British Isles with a trough stretching
E'wards towards SW Norway. HP lies over the near continent so that
generally S winds are found down the E side of the country and W to SW
winds cover the W side. Conditions in the S and SW of the country
favour the formation of small secondary depressions and thundery LPs,
which come into the SW and develop further over S England. So for the
N of the country we can expect cool, changeable weather and further S we
can expect weather which is sometimes cool and sometimes warm and
muggy, and this threatens heavy rain showers and thunder for southern
areas. Generally, temperatures will be lower in the north, and much
warmer in the S and SE of England.

The run of weather starts on 11th August as a depression approaches the
NW of Ireland. Its fronts stretch away SW'wards to the W of Ireland.
A small secondary out to the SW of Ireland moves ENE. HP lies to
the SE of the country. Winds are SW over the S half of the country and
S winds cover Scotland. Fair weather in the SW and S of the country,
but rain in the NW and N of the country moves E'wards. Rain
associated with the secondary may not reach the SW until later in the
day. Strongest winds expected over NW Ireland and W Scotland.
Temperatures generally cool.
On 12th, LP still lies to the NW of Britain. Its secondary has
reached S Ireland. Fronts stretch S'wards from Ireland into the W
Channel. HP expected to the NE of Britain There may be a disturbance
off the SE coast of England. Winds are generally S to SW over the whole
country. Fair weather is expected only in the extreme E or perhaps SE
of England. Rain expected over Ireland, Scotland and NW England. The
disturbance near the SE of England may bring some rain to the SE of
England early on. Temperatures expected to be still cool.
On 13th, a ridge from the Azores HP stretches NE'wards into S Ireland
and almost all England. LPs track W to E near N Scotland. Fronts
stretch down the E coast of Scotland and run from N Scotland SW'ards to
Northern Ireland and the Atlanatic. Winds are light and variable in
the south and W over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Apart from
Northern Ireland and N Scotland, weather will be dry and fine. Rain
is expected mostly to the E of Scotland. Strongest winds to the W and
NW of Scotland. Temperatures cool at first, but warming up from the SW
of the country.
On 14th, a ridge of HP stretches N'wards into England. LP lies to the
NW of the country and a small depression is moving NE'wards into SW
Ireland. A front stretches W/E across N Scotland and another front
stretches W/E along the Channel. Winds are SW in the W of the country
and W over central and E'ern areas. Weather is fine and dry over
England, with rain expected over the NW of the country. Temperatures
will be warmer in the W and SW of the country and cooler over the North
Sea areas.
On 15th, a complex depression lies to the NW of Ireland and the W of
Scotland. Yesterday's HP has flopped SE'wards so that only the Channel
profits from the HP. A small LP approaches the SW of Ireland. Fronts
lie as yesterday to the N of Scotland and also in the Channel. Winds
are generally SW over the whole country. Fair weather may hold on in N
and E England and also E Scotland but rain covers the NW of the country
and cloud comes into the SW of the country. Temperatures are warm in the
SE of the country, but cooler air comes into the NW.
On 16th, a LP lies over the S North Sea, and a flat ridge extending to
S Ireland and the SW of England comes into the country. A small
depression moves E'wards in the Atlantic towards N Ireland. A front
from the Atlantic depression extends E'wards into S Ireland. Winds are
generally NW over the country. Fair weather is expected over SW
England. Rain is expected over the E of England and showers over
most of Scotland. Rain spreads into Ireland during the day.
Temperatures are cooler from the NW, only the SE will be the warmest.
Strongest winds in the S of the North Sea and well to the W of
Scotland.
On 17th, a flat ridge cover the Channel and S England. An Atlantic
depression stretches into W Scotland and its secondary depression moves
towards S Ireland. A front stretches SSE'wards from Northern Ireland
to Wales and then SW'wards into the Atlantic. Winds are S in the W of
the country and W in the E'ern parts. The extreme E and SE of the
country may be fair at first, but rain over W'ern districts moves
E'wards. Temperatures are warm in the S and SE, but cooler to the NW of
Scotland. Strongest winds over S Ireland and SW England.
On 18th, a LP lies to the N of Scotland. Its secondary depression lies
over Northern Ireland. A front from the secondary over Ireland
stretches SE'wards into Wales and England. Another front from the
secondary depression stretches SW'wards into the Atlantic. Winds will be
generally S to SW over the country. Weather will be dry down the E
and SE coasts and cloud and rain will cover Ireland and W and N
Scotland. Temperatures will be warm in the S and SE of England and
cooler temperatures are expected over Ireland and W Scotland.
Strongest winds over Ireland and SW England.
On 19th, a ridge of HP comes into England from the SW. LP stretches
from W/E across N Scotland. A new LP out in the Atlantic moves in the
direction of W Scotland. A front lies across the country from Northern
Ireland towards SE England. Winds are light in the S of England and
generally W elsewhere. Winds back to S over Ireland. Weather may be
fair over parts of S England and extreme E of Scotland, but rain
covers many areas of the country. Temperatures will be warmest in
the S and SE. Coolest well to the W of Scotland. Strongest winds
to the S of Ireland.
On 20th, a large depression lies to the NW of the country. Fronts
from the depression stretch S'wards over and to the W of Ireland. A HP
area leaves the country in the S so that HP stretches along the E'ern
part of the Channel into the North Sea. Winds are generally SW. but
light in the S and SE. Winds generally veering NW later. Weather is
rain in the N of the country and showers spreading into W'ern areas.
Dry mostly in the S and SE of England. Temperatures warm at first in
the SE but cooler air comes into the NW of the country later.
Strongest wind in the N and NW of Scotland.

The general picture for the next period - 21st to 31st August - is for
a change to cooler weather. I expect a trough of LP from the North
Sea to Holland, down the length of Germany to North Italy. This
should bring much heat and thundery activity to E'ern parts of
Europe. Unfortunately, Britain is on the cold side of the trough. NW
winds should occur on a number of days bringing showers to nearly all
areas. HP to the W of Ireland should bring the best of the weather to
W and SW areas of the country. This should be a good example of
British monsoon weather during the summer months.
More details later on.

Cheers, Keith.