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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0607z,
2/08/04. Today's runs are having problems deciding what wins the battle of the Scandinavian High and the Atlantic low to the. At the moment it looks like a stalemate, with southerlies for most and increasingly settled weather the further east and south you are. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif Low pressure is centered to the west of Northern Ireland, bringing southerlies and SW'lies for the UK. The low deepens over Ireland at T+144, resulting in stronger SSE'lies for Scotland, SE'lies for Northern Ireland and southerlies elsewhere. By T+168 the low deepens over Scotland, with moderate westerlies for most. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html The Met Office run shows southerlies for most, with high pressure to the NE and a secondary low to the west. The southerlies continue at T+144, albeit in a much lighter form for England and Wales, as the lows merge to the west. GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif Much of the UK lies under light southerlies or SSW'lies, due to a ridge. Northern Ireland is the exception, being affected by SE'lies from a trough over Ireland. 850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over NW Scotland to +13C over SE England. Southerlies affect much of the UK at T+144 due to a deep low to the west, followed by southerlies and SE'lies as the low moves northwards at T+168. Day 8 sees lighter winds for all as a weak trough crosses the UK, followed by more light winds on day 9. Day 10 sees light easterlies for southern areas, with high pressure over Scandinavia throughout. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows two deep lows, one to the west of Scotland and the other further to the SW. Strong to gale force SW'lies and SSW'lies cover Scotland and Ireland, with lighter winds over England and Wales. 850hPa temperatures vary from +8C over northern Scotland to +11C over most of England and Wales. The nearest low deepens and moves away to the north at T+144, while the other fills to become a trough west of Ireland. SSW'lies and southerlies continue to cover the UK as a result. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html A deep low lies to the west of Scotland, bringing southerlies, SW'lies, westerlies and a trough over the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from +3C over Northern Ireland to +10C over SE England. A ridge builds over England and Wales at T+144, with the low moving northwards. Southerlies move over the UK at T+168, followed by strong SW'lies and southerlies at T+192 as the low to the west deepens and moves eastwards. |
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