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Old August 2nd 04, 07:08 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (2/08/04)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0607z,
2/08/04.

Today's runs are having problems deciding what wins the battle of the
Scandinavian High and the Atlantic low to the. At the moment it looks like a
stalemate, with southerlies for most and increasingly settled weather the
further east and south you are. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure is centered to the west of Northern Ireland, bringing
southerlies and SW'lies for the UK. The low deepens over Ireland at T+144,
resulting in stronger SSE'lies for Scotland, SE'lies for Northern Ireland
and southerlies elsewhere. By T+168 the low deepens over Scotland, with
moderate westerlies for most.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows southerlies for most, with high pressure to the NE
and a secondary low to the west. The southerlies continue at T+144, albeit
in a much lighter form for England and Wales, as the lows merge to the west.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Much of the UK lies under light southerlies or SSW'lies, due to a ridge.
Northern Ireland is the exception, being affected by SE'lies from a trough
over Ireland. 850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over NW Scotland to +13C
over SE England. Southerlies affect much of the UK at T+144 due to a deep
low to the west, followed by southerlies and SE'lies as the low moves
northwards at T+168. Day 8 sees lighter winds for all as a weak trough
crosses the UK, followed by more light winds on day 9. Day 10 sees light
easterlies for southern areas, with high pressure over Scandinavia
throughout.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows two deep lows, one to the west of Scotland and the
other further to the SW. Strong to gale force SW'lies and SSW'lies cover
Scotland and Ireland, with lighter winds over England and Wales. 850hPa
temperatures vary from +8C over northern Scotland to +11C over most of
England and Wales. The nearest low deepens and moves away to the north at
T+144, while the other fills to become a trough west of Ireland. SSW'lies
and southerlies continue to cover the UK as a result.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A deep low lies to the west of Scotland, bringing southerlies, SW'lies,
westerlies and a trough over the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from +3C over
Northern Ireland to +10C over SE England. A ridge builds over England and
Wales at T+144, with the low moving northwards. Southerlies move over the UK
at T+168, followed by strong SW'lies and southerlies at T+192 as the low to
the west deepens and moves eastwards.



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