Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0602z,
5/08/04.

The runs are still having problems with the track of the low over the
weekend and beginning of next week. The general theme remains a warm (if not
hot) one, although there's a good chance of some rain pretty much anywhere
in the UK as fronts move up from the low.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Moderate to strong southerlies cover the UK, due to a deep low SW of
Ireland. The low fills and drifts NW'wards at T+144, with southerlies
persisting over much of the UK. By T+168 the low lies to the south of
Iceland and a col covers England and Wales. Elsewhere, winds are southerlies
and SSW'lies.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows low pressure centred to the WSW of Ireland. A
secondary low covers Wales, bringing strong ESE'lies and easterlies to
Northern Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere, winds are SE'lies, southerlies or
SW'lies from northern England to southern England respectively. The
secondary low fills at T+144, leaving the UK under southerlies and SE'lies.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
A deep low lies to the west of Scotland, leading to SSW'lies and southerlies
for much of the UK. Winds are lightest over England, with 850hPa
temperatures from +7C over Northern Ireland to +12C over East Anglia. By
T+144 the low fills and moves NW'wards, while a new low forms over the North
Sea. Much of the UK thus lies under a col, as is the case at T+168 and day
8. Day 9 sees light SE'lies for most as the remnants of that deep low fill
to the south of Ireland. The low deepens again on day 10, with SE'lies
persisting.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run also shows a low influencing the UK, this time to the west
of Ireland. SSE'lies and SE'lies are the result, with 850hPa temperatures
ranging from +9C across Northern Ireland to +15C over Kent. The winds become
slightly lighter at T+144 as the low fills in situ.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
High pressure is centred over Scandinavia while low pressure is located to
the west of Northern Ireland. A SSE'ly flow covers the UK, pulling up some
hot air; 850hPa temperatures vary from +13C over Northern Ireland to +20C
over East Sussex. The winds become SE'lies at T+144 due to the low filling
and the Scandinavian High building westwards. A new low deepens over France
at T+168 while the high continues building and retrogressing. Easterlies and
NE'lies cover the UK, followed by ENE'lies on day 8 as the low deepens over
the Isles of Scilly.

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 5 Aug 2004 at 06:05:23, Darren Prescott wrote
:
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0602z,
5/08/04.

The runs are still having problems with the track of the low over the
weekend and beginning of next week.

Not to mention the location of the Scandi high...

The general theme remains a warm (if not
hot) one, although there's a good chance of some rain pretty much anywhere
in the UK as fronts move up from the low.

Thundery or frontal?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham