================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============


Summary valid for Sunday 08/08/04 to Saturday 14/08/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/08/04 2030 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Due to the rather unpredictable behaviour of ex-tropical storm Alex as it heads
towards the UK all comments below on next week's weather prospects are issued
with low confidence.

The general consensus at time of issue appears to be that a deep low will end up
to the west of Ireland by Monday. This low will then slowly fill, but become
complex over a large part of England and Wales. High pressure looks like being
maintained to the NE of the British Isles.

On Sunday and Monday many parts of England could again become hot or even very
hot with a 50% chance of temperatures getting into the low 30s celsius in SE
England. Rain and thunderstorms will move erratically eastwards across southern
and western areas at the same time.

Given the copious amount of water in an ex-tropical strom and very high
temperatures there is a 25% chance of some extremely violent thunderstorms. More
violent than this week even. Also SW parts are under threat too this time.
Rainfall could locally be very heavy with the possibility of disruption,
flooding and even mudslides causing severe danger. Even though that is rated at
25% it is highly likely in any case that southern and western parts will see
spells of quite heavy thundery rain.

With the SE wind North Sea coast regions of Scotland and northeast England could
end up dull and foggy but mainly dry, also Shetland. NW Scotland is likely to
see the brightest of the weather.

The second part of the week is likely to remain, very warm and muggy in all
areas with the possibility of more spells of rain and thunder, especially over
England and Wales. Meanwhile high pressure is likely to build from the north
meaning that Scotland could end up mainly dry and bright with spells of
sunshine, but still rather cloudy and misty near the east coast.

So to summarise, N. Ireland, England and Wales turning wet and stormy and
staying very warm or even hot and muggy. Drier and brighter over Scotland but
mist and fog near eastern coasts. LOW CONFIDENCE though.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from the now world famous meteorological office
at Haytor on Dartmoor where old fashioned values of service are alive and
thriving in the beautiful Devon countryside.

Investor in Martians
ISO 9999.3333 recurring
BSc and a lucky git

Will (Chief Forecaster)
--

" BANG !!! Come out from under that table David Womble "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will wrote:
================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============


Summary valid for Sunday 08/08/04 to Saturday 14/08/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/08/04 2030 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Due to the rather unpredictable behaviour of ex-tropical storm Alex as it heads
towards the UK all comments below on next week's weather prospects are issued
with low confidence.

The general consensus at time of issue appears to be that a deep low will end up
to the west of Ireland by Monday. This low will then slowly fill, but become
complex over a large part of England and Wales. High pressure looks like being
maintained to the NE of the British Isles.

On Sunday and Monday many parts of England could again become hot or even very
hot with a 50% chance of temperatures getting into the low 30s celsius in SE
England. Rain and thunderstorms will move erratically eastwards across southern
and western areas at the same time.

Given the copious amount of water in an ex-tropical strom and very high
temperatures there is a 25% chance of some extremely violent thunderstorms. More
violent than this week even. Also SW parts are under threat too this time.
Rainfall could locally be very heavy with the possibility of disruption,
flooding and even mudslides causing severe danger. Even though that is rated at
25% it is highly likely in any case that southern and western parts will see
spells of quite heavy thundery rain.

With the SE wind North Sea coast regions of Scotland and northeast England could
end up dull and foggy but mainly dry, also Shetland. NW Scotland is likely to
see the brightest of the weather.

The second part of the week is likely to remain, very warm and muggy in all
areas with the possibility of more spells of rain and thunder, especially over
England and Wales. Meanwhile high pressure is likely to build from the north
meaning that Scotland could end up mainly dry and bright with spells of
sunshine, but still rather cloudy and misty near the east coast.

So to summarise, N. Ireland, England and Wales turning wet and stormy and
staying very warm or even hot and muggy. Drier and brighter over Scotland but
mist and fog near eastern coasts. LOW CONFIDENCE though.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from the now world famous meteorological office
at Haytor on Dartmoor where old fashioned values of service are alive and
thriving in the beautiful Devon countryside.

Investor in Martians
ISO 9999.3333 recurring
BSc and a lucky git

Will (Chief Forecaster)
--

" BANG !!! Come out from under that table David Womble "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Interesting week ahead, looking forward to it.

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 5 Aug 2004 at 20:57:57, Steve Fuller wrote :

Interesting week ahead, looking forward to it.

I'm looking forward to any week from late September onwards, when the
potential for hot weather has gone!
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Will

Glad to see someone has mentioned the ex-storm "Alex" - I had mentioned this
a few days ago but no-one picked up on the point - I also thought that it
was classed as a Hurricane - I,m sure it just about managed to get to that
category - looking forward with interest to next week !

cheers


--
Paul Crabtree
Brampton N.E. Cumbria 117m ASL
Climatological Station 7076

http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk

"Paul Crabtree" (remove spam for valid
e-mail) wrote in message ...

Will

Glad to see someone has mentioned the ex-storm "Alex" - I had
mentioned this
a few days ago but no-one picked up on the point - I also thought that
it
was classed as a Hurricane -

.... still is .... just!
ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012004
0300Z FRI AUG 06 2004

RAPID VARIATIONS IN HARBOR WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM LOCAL
TIME ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA
....BETWEEN CAPE RACE AND CAPE SAINT FRANCIS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY CONCEPTION BAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.9N 47.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMMartin.

In message , Paul Crabtree
writes

Will

Glad to see someone has mentioned the ex-storm "Alex" - I had mentioned this
a few days ago but no-one picked up on the point - I also thought that it
was classed as a Hurricane - I,m sure it just about managed to get to that
category - looking forward with interest to next week !

"Alex" has been a hurricane since Tuesday. It reached its peak intensity
yesterday with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots as it passed south
of Nova Scotia. This morning, maximum sustained winds were 75 knots but
it was well into its transition to an extra-tropical storm as it moved
over much cooler waters.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
In message , Paul Crabtree
writes

Will

Glad to see someone has mentioned the ex-storm "Alex" - I had
mentioned this
a few days ago but no-one picked up on the point - I also thought
that it
was classed as a Hurricane - I,m sure it just about managed to get to
that
category - looking forward with interest to next week !

"Alex" has been a hurricane since Tuesday. It reached its peak
intensity
yesterday with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots as it passed south
of Nova Scotia. This morning, maximum sustained winds were 75 knots
but
it was well into its transition to an extra-tropical storm as it moved
over much cooler waters.

see the current (00Z) EXO analysis

Martin.

http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.gif

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message ...
see the current (00Z) EXO analysis
As was mentioned on a Web-based forum, Tropical Storm Alex makes it to the
mid-Atlantic, according to the T+24 forecast chart:

http://64.246.48.81/pics/brack0.gif

(As an aside, I'm sure they used to have FSXX written on them in the top
left, but perhaps I'm misremebering)

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Martin Rowley" wrote in message ...
see the current (00Z) EXO analysis
As was mentioned on a Web-based forum, Tropical Storm Alex makes it to
the
mid-Atlantic, according to the T+24 forecast chart:

http://64.246.48.81/pics/brack0.gif

(As an aside, I'm sure they used to have FSXX written on them in the
top
left, but perhaps I'm misremebering)


Yes indeed, the analysis would have been ASXX, the forecast FSXX. And
the extended range stuff (48, 72 hr etc., because they had thickness,
had a hybrid FS/FUXX header.

Can't quite remember when it actually changed; looking at the archive
at:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm

the change for the *analysis* occurred on the 8th May 2003 (though I
confess I don't remember it happening); the change for the forecast
products probably came in before that, when the requirement to manually
merge 48/72 and 96/120 etc., for the old-style 'drum' facsimile was no
longer there.

Martin.

Glad to see someone has mentioned the ex-storm "Alex" - I had mentioned this
a few days ago but no-one picked up on the point - I also thought that it
was classed as a Hurricane - I,m sure it just about managed to get to that
category - looking forward with interest to next week !

"Alex" has been a hurricane since Tuesday. It reached its peak intensity
yesterday with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots as it passed south
of Nova Scotia. This morning, maximum sustained winds were 75 knots but
it was well into its transition to an extra-tropical storm as it moved
over much cooler waters.

Norman.

Not just Hurricane "Alex", but 'Major' Hurricane "Alex" (Category 3).
Hurricanes containing sustained winds of 97kt or more are classed
as Major, I think.

Nigel, in parched Romsey, Hampshire (only 0.4mm in the last 15
days and a paltry 5.0mm since 10 July).