I see the June CET increased from a provisional figure of 15.4c
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/2004/june.html to 16.1c !
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/researc...HadCET_act.txt

And you thought the 0.3c increase in March was bad!

Looks like April and May also saw notable increases of 0.3c and 0.4c
between provisional figures and those entered in the Hadley dataset.

?????????????????????????

Andy

"Andy Mayhew" wrote in message
om...
I see the June CET increased from a provisional figure of 15.4c
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/2004/june.html to 16.1c !

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/researc...HadCET_act.txt

And you thought the 0.3c increase in March was bad!

I think there is something seriously wrong with the Hadley
Centre's final CET figure. I know there was a plan to change
the stations being used, partly triggered by the imminent
closure of Manchester/Ringway (Oct or Nov?), and
partly by a desire (eh?) to replace sites with human
observers by sites with AWSs (aaargh!). However, I'm not
aware that that change has actually happened yet. If it has,
the source the error is probably in the correction factor
used to homogenise the figures from the two sets of
stations.

I first noticed something wrong when the MO's final
CET for March was published. I've just done a quick
tabulation which shows a step-change in March 2004
between the final MO (ie Hadley Centre) CET and all
other national temperature measures including my own
CET calculation. (You might remember that my
calculation aims to emulate the MO final figure, but it's
produced entirely independently).

The MO England & Wales figure will naturally differ from the
other series by some margin, and it shows a higher difference
in summer than in winter, but the step-change in March still
stands out when you plot this series against the MO final CET.

Here is the table (prov= MO provisional; final= Hadley
Centre final CET; PE= my final figure; E&W= MO
areally meaned figure for England and Wales). It starts
in Jan 2003:

prov final PE E&W
J 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2
F 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7
M 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2
A 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.3
M 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.6
J 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.5
J 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.0
A 18.3 18.3 18.3 17.7
S 14.5 14.2 14.4 14.0
O 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.9
N 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.9
D 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8
J 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.9
F 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.0
M 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.2
A 9.6 9.9 9.5 9.1
M 12.3 12.7 12.2 11.2
J 15.4 16.1 15.4 14.9
J x x 15.8 15.4

As far as I can tell the MO haven't issued even a
provisional figure for July 2004. Maybe they have,
after five months and several queries on u.s.w.,
finally realised that, "Houston, we have a problem".

Philip Eden