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Old August 11th 04, 07:12 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (11/08/04)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued 0611z,
11/08/04.

The runs differ quite widely again today. The general theme is one of light
winds and high pressure to the SE, bringing increasingly settled weather the
further south and east you are. However, today's GFS run is quite zonal,
with less settled conditions for all compared to the other runs and the JMA
hints at a similar setup a week away. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A trough covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, with westerlies to the south.
There's little change at T+144, but by T+168 a small low covers England and
Wales, with light winds for all.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows southerlies for Scotland and WSW'lies elsewhere,
with a trough over Scotland. The winds become WSW'lies for all at T+144.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under SW'lies, with a shallow low to the west. 850hPa
temperatures vary from +7C over NW Scotland to +10C over southern England.
The SW'lies continue for most at T+144, with a trough over Ireland and a low
to the NE of Scotland. The winds increase in strength at T+168 due to a low
deepening to the west of Ireland. The low fills over Northern Ireland on day
8, bringing easterlies to Scotland and WSW'lies elsewhere. The low quickly
moves ENE'wards and deepens over Denmark on day 9, leaving the UK under
northerlies and NW'lies. A weak ridge crosses the UK on day 10, ahead of
another low to the west, with light SW'lies and westerlies as a result.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
Very light westerlies cover the UK, with a ridge to the south and a slack
low to the west. 860hPa temperatrues are between +7C over northern Scotland
and +11C over southern England. Southerlies cover the UK at T+144 as the low
to the west deepens.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
As with most of the other runs, a low lies to the west, bringing SW'lies for
all. 850hPa temperatures vary from +9C over Northern Ireland to +11C over
southern England. The low to the west fills in situ at T+144, resulting in
westerlies for much of the UK. Southerlies and SE'lies affect the British
Isles at T+168 as the low deepens over the Celtic Sea. The low then moves
northwards on day 8m with SW'lies for England, Northern Ireland and Wales.



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