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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 22/08/04 to Saturday 28/08/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 19/08/04 1930 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

High confidence that next week will start unsettled with still a moderate risk
of yet more torrential downpours with thunder and, as I have been saying in my
last three forecasts now, a continued risk of flooding and landslides posing
severe danger to life and property.

However, there are now good indications that the weather will change after
midweek bringing a return to a more normal westerly type weather and possibly
becoming mainly dry in southern parts. Only moderate confidence in this though.

In a little bit more detail, Sunday should be a fine summer's day in most
places, but rain and strengthening southerly winds from a deepening Atlantic low
will spread into SW England, Wales and northern Ireland during the evening and
the rest of Britain overnight into Monday. Temperatures near normal after a
chilly start on Sunday morning.

On Monday and Tuesday the low and associated upper air vortex will transfer east
into England and fill slowly. Circulating around the low in moderating winds
there will be clumps of showers and thunderstorms, posing a risk of torrential
downpours and dangerous landslides.

After Tuesday the low looks like filling up and moving away as Atlantic
westerlies propagate towards the British Isles bringing a return to rather more
benign weather in the form of rain interspersed with spells of sunshine and
showers and temperatures around normal. Most of the rain is likely in northern
Britain and many southern districts could end up fine and dry as we approach the
Bank holiday weekend.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from the now world famous meteorological office
at Haytor on Dartmoor where old fashioned values of service are alive and
thriving in the beautiful Devon countryside.

Cheers,

Will (Chief forecaster USW)
--

" Life is precious, love life and life will love you "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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