134
WTNT31 KNHC 050453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES FINALLY MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR SEWALL'S POINT FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR NEAR SEWALL'S
POINT FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF STUART...JENSEN
BEACH...AND PORT SALERNO FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. A
CONTINUED SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE
ENTIRE EYE OF THE HURRICANE INLAND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
RESIDENTS IN THE EYE OF FRANCES ARE URGED TO REMAIN INSIDE SAFE
SHELTER SINCE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EYE...ACCOMPANIED BY
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...MAY TAKE UP TO
2-4 HOURS TO REACH SOME PORTIONS OF THE MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTY
COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EYE MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 63 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78
MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM
TOWER AT INDIAN HARBOR BEACH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. A
PRESSURE OF 963.1 MB WAS RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL
MONITORING PROGRAM TOWER AT PORT SALERNO.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

OR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR NEAR SEWALL'S
POINT FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF STUART...JENSEN
BEACH...AND PORT SALERNO FLORIDA.


My wife has been up most of the night watching coverage on Fox News.
I have been visiting http://www.nhc.noaa.gov to get the official updates
from the National Hurrican Centre.

Cate's parents (my In-Laws) live in Palm City; a small town near Stuart,
Florida.
(dont confuse with West Palm Beach)

coordinates 27deg10'N 80deg15' W (27.2 N 80.3W)

They lost power yesterday.

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message


Cate's parents (my In-Laws) live in Palm City; a small town near Stuart,
Florida. (dont confuse with West Palm Beach)

coordinates 27deg10'N 80deg15' W (27.2 N 80.3W)

They lost power yesterday.

I hope they are OK.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

Subject: HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
From: "Louis BREDA"

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES
WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF STUART

FORECASTER STEWART

Good job the name of the town and the name of the forecaster have
different spellings, but it could sound a bit confusing on the radio.

On a more sinister note, I see that Hurricane "Ivan" is already breaking
records as it speeds towards the Windward Islands. According to NHC,
"Ivan" is the strongest Tropical Cyclone to occur so far south in the
North Atlantic Basin (9.9degN) since records began (presumably 1885).
It has rapidly strengthened into the 4th Major Hurricane of 2004, at
Category 3.

Nigel (Romsey, Hampshire)