Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0547z, 12/09/04.

The models show a somewhat unsettled spell for much of the UK to end the
week, although there are considerable differences regarding the influence of
the nearby European High. Some runs have it bringing settled weather for
much of England and Wales, whereas others keep the whole of the UK under
cyclonic SW'lies. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure covers England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. Much the
same is true at T+144, although the high moves slowly eastwards. By T+168 a
trough crosses Ireland, bringing westerlies to Northern Ireland and SSW'lies
elsewhere.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
SW'lies cover the UK, with high pressure over Germany, Austria and the Czech
Republic. Low pressure is centred to the SW of Iceland and by T+144 it fills
and moves NE'wards, with the UK still lying under SW'lies.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
A very deep low lies to the SW of Iceland, bringing SW'lies across the UK.
The winds are lightest over SE England due to a nearby ridge. The UK lies
under a warm sector, with 850hPa temperatures from +5C over East Anglia to
+10C over SW England. The winds become SW'lies at T+144 as a trough moves
eastwards over the UK, followed by westerlies at T+168. SW'lies return for
day 8, with the main low by now to the NW of the UK. Another trough moves
eastwards on day 9, with westerlies for all, followed by more SW'lies on day
10 as yet another low affects the UK.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The UK lies under SW'lies, this time with high pressure centred over the
English Channel. The winds are strong to gale force over Northern Ireland
and Scotland though, due to a low to the WSW of Iceland. 850hPa temperatures
vary from +5C across East Anglia to +7C over Cornwall. SW'lies persist over
the UK at T+144 as the high moves swiftly ENE'wards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run also shows the UK between a high to the SE and a low (to
the WNW), with SW'lies as a result. 850hPa temperatures range from +6C over
NE Scotland to +11C over SW England. A trough affects the UK at T+144,
bringing SW'lies for all, followed by more SW'lies at T+168 with a very weak
ridge over the UK. A secondary low deepens to the west of Ireland on day 8,
resulting in SSW'lies and southerlies.