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IMPORTANT FEATURES OF THIS PERIOD ARE THE SECONDARY DEPRESSIONS IN THE
CHANNEL,. LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH-WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES
AND THE FINAL HIGH PRESSURE OF THE MONTH DURING THE LAST FOUR
DAYS. GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD:

The general pressure situation for the period 21st to 30th September
shows a secondary depression in the Channel. An area of high pressure
lies off the south-west of the country, and a further high pressure
lies to the east, over the near continent. Low pressure covers the
area to the west and north-west of Britain. Winds are generally SW in
the west and north-west of the country and come from an E'erly
direction in the south of the country. Winds are generally light and
variable in central areas. A trough in the 500mb top. stretches from
SE Greenland south-eastwards to Ireland and Wales which suggests
that the north-west winds over the Atlantic usher in a cool phase for
most of Britain. Perhaps, generally speaking, the high pressure over
the continent may bring the best weather to near extreme north-east
Scotland. Most rain will fall generally over Scotland, Northern
Ireland and parts of north England. The dryest parts are expected to
be off south Ireland and off south-west England. Temperatures
generally warmest in the SE and E and coolest over Ireland and W
Scotland. It would appear that this period will bring cooler weather
generally to the British Isles.

From the 21st to 24th, cool air over north-west Scotland will drift
southwards towards the Midlands. Southern areas will have the warmest
weather. On 24th, the cool air will be swept eastwards iinto the
North Sea. On 25th, warm air will drift into S and SE England and move
out eastwards. , but on 26th a surge of cool air from Scotland will
come into Ireland and Wales. On 27th warmer air in the south and
south-east comes in again, leaving cooler air over northern and
western areas of Britain. On 29th another surge of warm air comes into
the south of the country, spreads northwards and leaves the cooler
air out to the north-west of Ireland.

The run of weather starts on 21st with a LP area to the NW and N of
Scotland South-west winds cover the country. It could be dry at first
in the S half of the country, but showers cover the N and rain comes in
from the W. Warmest along the south coast and cooler to the W of
Ireland. Strongest winds far out to the SW of England.
On 22nd, a LP area to the NW of Scotland has a secondary moving
into S Ireland. HP lies in the Atlantic to the west of the secondary
and also near Denmark. Winds are S in the east of the country
turning to W in the west. Rain covers most of the country, but
improving weather comes in from the SW. Probably dry at first along
the North Sea coastline. Warmest weather in the south and cooler
weather to the west and north-west of Ireland. Strongest winds to the
W of Scotland.
On 23rd, a LP area to the W and NW of Scotland with a trough to
just off Northern Ireland. HP along the Channel extends into the
south North Sea. Winds are SW across the country and a possible
disturbance in the airstream crosses the Midlands in a NE'erly
direction. Heavy rain to the W of Scotland and rain showers over the
rest of Scotland and the W of the country. Fair weather expected over SE
England. Heavy rain possible in the SW of England spreading
eastwards. Strongest winds in south-western England.
On 24th, LP to the N of Scotland has a long band of cool westerly
winds across the country. The westerlies blow in from the Atlantic
with a long fetch and press on into Germany. A small depression should
be found E of Scotland and another should be approaching the country
from the W of Ireland. There could be a small flat HP just touching the
S of Ireland and moving eastwards. Rain showers in most areas, cool
weather. Heavy rain into the S of Ireland later. It could be dry at
first over SE England. Strongest winds off E Scotland and W Scotland.
On 25th, a deep depression to the south of Iceland has a
secondary depression to the S of Ireland. Cool winds from the Iceland
area come in as W or SW winds across the country. The warmest air is
felt over SE England at first. Showers over most parts, but heavy rain
is expected along the Channel coast as the secondary moves eastwards.
Strongest winds in the N and NW of Scotland.
On 26th, LP to the N of Scotland. A secondary over S and SE
England moves eastwards into the North Sea. A flat ridge of HP to
the SW of Ireland moves into S Ireland later on. Cool W to NW winds
cover the country. Rain showers over most areas, but heavy showers over
Scotland. Fair weather comes into the SW of the country later and
spreads into SW England. Strongest winds in the Channel.
On 27th, the HP over S Ireland yesterday has now developed and now
covers S and SE England and stretches up the North Sea towards E
Scotland. A new LP lies to the south of Iceland. Its fronts come
into Ireland and the W of Scotland by noon. Winds are light in the SE
of the country and are southerly in the NW of Britain. Cool
temperatures can be expected in the NW of the country, the warmest area
is the SE. Night frost is possible in the SE. Strongest winds expected
to the W of Scotland.
On 28th, LP approaches the W and NW of Scotland and extends
eastwards across Scotland into the northern North Sea. HP still covers
the SE of England but is now moving away eastwards into the near
continent. Cool air is coming into Ireland and slightly warmer air
crossing the SE of England. Winds are mostly SW at first but veering W
later. Rain showers over Scotland and fair elsewhere.
A small disturbance could come into the SW of England later and bring
some rainy weather. Strongest winds along the W coastline from Scotland
down to SW England.
On 29th, LP to the NW of Scotland with a broad trough
south-eastwards into Northern Ireland and Wales which swings
north-eastwards towards the Midlands. HP touching the south North Sea
moves into the continent. Winds are southerly over E Scotland and
south-westerly over S England. Variable winds over Ireland and
Wales. Rain showers to the NW of the country and further rain showers
over England and Wales. Heavy showers expected over S Ireland and
Wales, later. Strongest winds expected to the W of Scotland.
On 30th, LP stretches from S Iceland towards a depression over
Scotland. An Atlantic depression just W of Ireland moves
north-eastwards towards Scotland. A flat HP near SW England fades
away. Winds are slightly warm SW in the east turning to cool W in the
west. Rain showers cover most of the county. Weather could improve
along the south coast later. But heavy showers spread into SW and W
areas during the day. Strongest winds over W Scotland.

The next period (!st to 10th October 2004) has a lot of W to NW
winds. Anticyclones are spaced around the British Isles; one over
mid-Norway, another over Germany and another out in the Atlantic far
to the SW of Ireland. Also, conditions are just right for small
secondary depressions to develop from Biscay, through the Channel
into the southern North Sea. Weather should be mostly unsettled and
slightly cool. Perhaps on some seldom occasion the anticyclones from SW
and NE consolidate over the British Isles. It would be an exception,
and for that we'll have to see the details. Till later.

Cheers, Keith