Looking at the latest VIS & WV loops on the NOAA site, Ivan is not too
far away now from the Gulf coast of the US: extrapolating movement it
looks like it's heading straight for the Mississippi Delta and the New
Orleans basin with only minimal curve to the right. In addition to the
high winds & heavy rainfall, the potential storm surge (which I
understand is often what causes the most casualties in any coastal
location) must also be a major threat given the shape of the coast in
the region. Not far away now (as a CAT 4) and by the end of our night it
will be fully on this region ....

Martin.



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On Wed, 15 Sep 2004 19:24:55 +0100, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

Looking at the latest VIS & WV loops on the NOAA site, Ivan is not too
far away now from the Gulf coast of the US: extrapolating movement it
looks like it's heading straight for the Mississippi Delta and the New
Orleans basin with only minimal curve to the right. In addition to the
high winds & heavy rainfall, the potential storm surge (which I
understand is often what causes the most casualties in any coastal
location) must also be a major threat given the shape of the coast in
the region. Not far away now (as a CAT 4) and by the end of our night it
will be fully on this region ....

Winds at the buoy just off the Mississippi delta are already hurricane
force (77knots sustained). For those who don't know, buoy data:
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/flm.html

Looks like Ivan will pass just East of New Orleans - Biloxi (again!)
Mobile and Pensacola are right in line for the eye. The eyewall of
Hurricane Georges came ashore at Biloxi in 1998 and a mobile doppler
radar measured a gust speed of 171 mph - and it was a mere Category 2
at landfall.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/huri...e/whurdows.htm

--
Dave

Martin Rowley wrote:

Looking at the latest VIS & WV loops on the NOAA site, Ivan is not too
far away now from the Gulf coast of the US: extrapolating movement it
looks like it's heading straight for the Mississippi Delta and the New
Orleans basin with only minimal curve to the right. In addition to the
high winds & heavy rainfall, the potential storm surge (which I
understand is often what causes the most casualties in any coastal
location) must also be a major threat given the shape of the coast in
the region. Not far away now (as a CAT 4) and by the end of our night it
will be fully on this region ....

The most bizarre thing just happened as I was reading this - "The House
of the Rising Sun" by the Animals (There is a house in New Orleans...)
started playing on my computer!!

I'm glad to not be in New Orleans like I was this time last year. It
struck me how low-lying the city was, particularly the most historical
Latin Quarter area. Ivan might put a dampener on the perpetual party
that seems to always be going on there.

Jonathan