This week's set-up is a classic ...
1.twin vortices near Scandinavia and the Canadian
Maritimes ...
2. a straight WNW-ly jet across the Atlantic
3. a frontal boundary lying across the right
entrance of the jet (near Newfoundland)
4. big air-mass contrasts over eastern Canada
with the frontal boundary sharpening

In the classic scenario what happens next is a
warm front wave runs into the jet's right entrance,
races across the Atlantic under the jet, then
deepens explosively as it reaches the left exit.

The Braxeter charts have most of the deepening
after the wave has crossed the UK on Thursday
night and Friday, which is good for us but nasty
for Denmark, north Germany and Nederland ...
fortunately the astronomical tides are close to their
lowest amplitude later this week, mitigating the
likely surge into the NW German estuaries.

Philip Eden

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message


The Braxeter charts have most of the deepening
after the wave has crossed the UK on Thursday
night and Friday, which is good for us but nasty
for Denmark, north Germany and Nederland ...
fortunately the astronomical tides are close to their
lowest amplitude later this week, mitigating the
likely surge into the NW German estuaries.

So, windy for them -as suits the solar declination now that we are not
getting winter storms over sickmess time. And just bloody wet for us
then?


Got any way of forecasting singularities? Cos we are in for another one
of them too.


--
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"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message
news:3f5125dba0eda80d383a89b1fc5cacd3.45219@mygate .mailgate.org...
"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message


The Braxeter charts have most of the deepening
after the wave has crossed the UK on Thursday
night and Friday, which is good for us but nasty
for Denmark, north Germany and Nederland ...
fortunately the astronomical tides are close to their
lowest amplitude later this week, mitigating the
likely surge into the NW German estuaries.

So, windy for them -as suits the solar declination now that we are not
getting winter storms over sickmess time. And just bloody wet for us
then?


Actually, it looks like staying fairly dry down here in Cornwall
(Well I can hope!)


Graham
Penzance

Philip

Most impressed - just one little question - as we tend to find this of use -
with these Gales, and this "Classic" set-up -

"What's the direction going to be???"

Just thought it would be worth sharing that with us.....

Terrific theory - I just hope it works better than the one that gave clear
blue skies for this morning in the S.E. "Don't be fooled" she said, "the
cloud will build up in the afternoon" !!!
- and that was a T+8hrs forecast!
Dave

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

In the classic scenario what happens next is a
warm front wave runs into the jet's right entrance,
races across the Atlantic under the jet, then
deepens explosively as it reaches the left exit.


Philip Eden

This is what I love about the weather, it just doesn't do what it is meant
to.

It looks as if not as much troughing has occurred aloft over the N. Sea,
thus not bringing the left exit region (mass ascent) of the jet far enough
S. I suppose this is indirectly related to the warm advection/upstream
ridging at 35N 45W, which maybe tied to goings-on with Hurrican Karl.......?

Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

snip

This is what I love about the weather, it just doesn't do what it is meant
to.


Reminds me of the classic, "the forecast was right but the weather was
wrong", or something.

Jon.

And listening to Philip on radio 5 this am - it was almost as a postscrpit /
afterthought, after talking about strong winds for Sat up North, when he
decided to mention the wind direction - I thought that was quite amusing and
almost aimed at me!!

Well done PE


"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

snip

This is what I love about the weather, it just doesn't do what it is
meant
to.


Reminds me of the classic, "the forecast was right but the weather was
wrong", or something.

Jon.

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

In the classic scenario what happens next is a
warm front wave runs into the jet's right entrance,
races across the Atlantic under the jet, then
deepens explosively as it reaches the left exit.


Philip Eden

This is what I love about the weather, it just doesn't do what it
is meant to.

You'll have noticed that I didn't phrase my remarks in
the form of a forecast. Been around too long to fall for
that one.

Philip Eden