Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0616z,
23/09/04.

The models still show an increasingly settled picture (especially for
southern areas) by the middle of next week. However, there are considerable
differences with the positioning of the high between the runs. As ever, more
runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge lies to the west, with low pressure over southern Norway bringing
northerlies and NW'lies over the UK. The rige builds to become a high over
the UK at T+144, with light winds for all. There's little change at T+168 as
the high moves slowly eastwards.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
NW'lies cover the UK as the result of high pressure to the SW and low
pressure to the west of Norway. The high moves over the UK at T+144, with
light winds for all.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The British Isles lie under westerlies, with the UK between a low north of
Scotland and high pressure over France. 850hPa temperatures vary from +8C
over northern Scotland to +11C over SW England. The low moves away at T+144,
as does the high; this leaves the UK under a continuation of westerlies. A
ridge builds over England and Wales at T+168, leading to SSW'lies and
SW'lies, followed by more of the same on day 8 as the ridge moves eastwards.
Another ridge builds over the UK on day 9 with light winds for all, with
light southerlies on day 10 as the ridge moves eastwards.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
High pressure is centred over the English Channel, with westerlies for much
of the UK as a result. 850hPa temperatures range from +10C over northern
Scotland to +13C over southern England. The high declines and drifts
ENE'wards at T+144, allowing SSW'lies to affect Northern Ireland and SW'lies
to move over Scotland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a large high to the SW, with a ridge to the west of
the UK. Westerlies cover much of the UK as a result, although western
Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland lie under NW'lies. 850hPa
temperatures vary from +1C over NW Scotland to +14C over SW England.
Northerlies and NW'lies are displayed on the T+144 chart, as the ridge to
the west builds, followed by lighter winds for most as the ridge topples
over the UK on day 7. The high builds over the Low Countries on day 8,
bringing southerlies and SW'lies for the UK.