Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0608z, 24/09/04.

The models show a NW/SE split for the middle of the week, with a trough
moving in from the west. Beyond that, both the JMA and GFS show settled
weather moving in again, although it could well turn out to be another NW/SE
split. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure lies to the south of Ireland, with a ridge over the UK. As a
result, winds are westerlies for Northern Ireland and NW'lies elsewhere. The
high moves over England and Wales at T+144, with SW'lies and WSW'lies
elsewhere. By T+168 the UK lies under southerlies and SW'lies as the high
builds and moves away to the east.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Scotland lies under a trough, with westerlies across the UK. The westerlies
ease at T+144 as high pressure builds and moves NNE'wards over England and
Wales.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
A ridge covers the UK, from a high centred over northern France. Winds are
light westerlies for England and Wales, with stronger SW'lies elsewhere.
850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over NE England to +9C over SW England. A
trough crosses Northern Ireland at T+144, with SSW'lies for much of the UK,
followed by another ridge from the SW at T+168. By then, Scotland and
Northern Ireland lie under moderate SW'lies, with lighter northerlies
elsewhere. The high moves over the English Channel on day 8, with SW'lies
for most of the UK, followed by much lighter winds for all on day 9 as the
high builds over the UK. The high continues to build on day 10, with light
winds for all.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
Light winds cover the UK with high pressure overhead. 850hPa temperatures
vary from +8C over NE Scotland to +11C across SW England. The high moves
away to the NE at T+144, leaving the UK under southerlies.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run also shows the UK influenced by high pressure, with a ridge
atop the British Isles. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over NE England
to +11C over SW England. A trough approaches Ireland at T+144, bringing
SW'lies across the UK. A new ridge builds in from the west at T+168, with
NW'lies for most. By the start of October the high builds over the English
Channel, with SW'lies and WSW'lies across the UK.