Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0546z, 25/09/04.

The models are split today. Both the European runs show settled weather for
most, whereas the American, Canadian and Japanese runs paint a much less
settled picture. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Light winds and high pressure cover the UK. The high drifts eastwards at
T+144, bringing southerlies and SW'lies, followed by westerlies for many at
T+168. By then a new ridge covers England and Wales, with the parent high to
the SW.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under light winds, with high pressure centred over England. The
high builds in situ at T+144, leading to westerlies for Scotland,
southerlies for Northern Ireland and easterlies for southern England.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
A trough lies to the west, bringing southerlies across the UK. 850hPa
temperatures vary from +3C over eastern Scotland to +9C over SW England. The
trough moves over the North Sea at T+144, allowing a westerly flow to become
established over the UK. The winds become SW'lies at T+168, gale force for
Scotland, as pressure rises to the south. Another trough moves swiftly
eastwards on day 8, bringing westerlies for all. NW'lies follow on day 9 as
a ridge builds to the west, with more NW'lies on day 10 as the ridge moves
eastwards.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
Southerlies cover the UK, with high pressure to the east. 850hPa
temperatures range from +7C over NE Scotland to +11C over SW England. The
southerlies continue at T+144 with high pressure centred over Germany.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run also shows southerlies, this time with a relatively deep
low west of Ireland. 850hPa temperatures vary from +6C over NE Scotland to
+11C over SW England. The low becomes a trough over the UK at T+144, with
westerlies and SW'lies, followed by more of the same at T+168. By day 8 the
low fills over Shetland, with westerlies and NW'lies for the UK.