Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0607z, 28/09/04.

In summary, the models show an unsettled outlook, with low pressure never
far from the UK. There's also likely to be high pressure persisting to the
east, meaning that winds will be from a westerly or southerly direction in
the main. As usual, the further south and east you are the more likely you
are to avoid the heaviest of the rain. There's still a fair bit of
difference between models though with regards to tracks and intensities of
lows, so as ever more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A trough covers the North Sea, with WSW'lies and SW'lies over the UK. The
winds become stronger southerlies and SSW'lies at T+144 as a low fills to
the west of Scotland. The low deepens again to the south of Iceland on day
7, leaving the UK under SSW'lies.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under SW'lies and SSW'lies, due to a trough to the west and high
pressure to the east. The trough moves over the North Sea at T+144,
resulting in westerlies for the UK.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
High pressure is centred over the Baltic, with low pressure over Iceland. As
a result the UK lies under SSW'lies, with 850hPa temperatures from +1C over
NW Scotland to +9C over SW England. A secondary low deepens over Ireland at
T+144, with southerlies for the majority of the UK. By T+168 the low moves
away to the NE, leaving the UK under SW'lies. A weak ridge then brings
southerlies and SE'lies on day 8, before the winds become ESE'lies and
southerlies as a trough moves northwards. Day 10 sees high pressure over
Scandinavia and a low to the west, with southerlies for most.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
SW'lies affect the UK as the result of a deep low over Iceland and high
pressure over France and eastern Europe. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C
over NW Scotland to +5C over southern England. A trough moves eastwards over
the UK at T+144, bringing westerlies for most.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a large high to the SW of the UK, with a mixture of
NW'lies, westerlies and SW'lies over the British Isles. 850hPa temperatures
vary from freezing over NW Scotland to +5C over southern England. The winds
become WNW'lies as a weak ridge builds to the west at T+144, followed by
stronger southerlies and SSW'lies at T+168 from a secondary low west of
Scotland. The low is absorbed by a large low to the SW of Iceland on day 8,
leaving the UK under SW'lies.