18:08 28Sep2004 DJN-DJ Forecasters: Hurricane Season Not Over; Oct, Nov
Remain

DJ Forecasters: Hurricane Season Not Over; Oct, Nov Remain

MIAMI (AP)--Hurricane season in Florida has already exceeded all
expectations. Four major hurricanes have hit the state of Florida in six
weeks, a feat not seen since Texas was slammed more than a century ago.
For weary residents in the Sunshine State and along the Eastern
Seaboard, many want to know what they can expect for the next two months of
this already volatile season. Unfortunately, forecasters can't make any
promises. What they can do is refer to the past, which shows September is
often the busiest month. But that doesn't mean anyone's off the hook for
October or November.
"Right now there's a break, there's no threatening systems out there,"
said Jorge Aguirre, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in
Miami. "But this may only be a brief break. It's not over until it's over."
And it's not over until Nov. 30, a long two months for Floridians who
have had to deal with the stress of preparing for the onslaught of storm
after storm. State officials blame 91 deaths on Hurricanes Charley, Frances,
Ivan and Jeanne.
Aguirre said the season usually peaks between mid-August and September.
He said another peak usually comes in October, and that the only difference
is that by then, storms usually form in the Caribbean and off the coast of
Mexico, instead of off the coast of Africa.
That's because wind shears in October and November tend to make the
Atlantic inhospitable for hurricanes, said Chris Landsea, a research
meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in
Miami.
Landsea noted that the warmer waters of the Caribbean and gulf can
create strong storms, such as Category 3 Hurricane Opal in 1995, which
caused at least 50 deaths in Guatemala and Mexico and 20 deaths in the
United States, and Category 5 Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which killed least
9,000 people in Central America.
The shorter distance those storms need to travel before hitting land
can leave little time for people to prepare, unlike Atlantic storms, which
usually allow days for preparations.
Landsea said that history does show that hurricanes tend to come in
clusters, which means the next couple of weeks could be quiet.
But, he said, when the first two-thirds of a season is active, like
this year, October and November tends to be busy as well.
The good news is that once early November comes, "the large threat from
a major hurricane goes way down," Landsea said.
More good news is that El Nino-like conditions are taking place in the
eastern and central Pacific, said Phil Klotzbach, research associate of
Colorado State University's noted hurricane forecaster William Gray. El Nino
refers to the warming of the Pacific waters and leads to
hurricane-unfriendly wind shears over the Atlantic and Caribbean, he said.
In the past week, shears have increased over the eastern Atlantic, he said.
"In general, when El Nino takes place, the season tends to end a little
earlier," he said.
But some forecasters are already watching an area of cloudiness in the
southwest Caribbean, where water temperatures have been above normal.
"Even though the odds of getting these hurricanes or storms hitting the
states diminish, you can't leave your guard down," said Tom Kines, senior
meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc., a commercial weather forecasting center.
"You have to pay attention to the tropics for the next few months."

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

I did hear something late last night of Radio 5 Live that "they" were
watching a development off the coast of Africa - but to early to tell if it
would turn into anything - the rest of the interview was on similar lines
to what you listed

Paul C
Brampton

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...

18:08 28Sep2004 DJN-DJ Forecasters: Hurricane Season Not Over; Oct, Nov
Remain

DJ Forecasters: Hurricane Season Not Over; Oct, Nov Remain

MIAMI (AP)--Hurricane season in Florida has already exceeded all
expectations. Four major hurricanes have hit the state of Florida in six
weeks, a feat not seen since Texas was slammed more than a century ago.
For weary residents in the Sunshine State and along the Eastern
Seaboard, many want to know what they can expect for the next two months
of this already volatile season. Unfortunately, forecasters can't make any
promises. What they can do is refer to the past, which shows September is
often the busiest month. But that doesn't mean anyone's off the hook for
October or November.
"Right now there's a break, there's no threatening systems out there,"
said Jorge Aguirre, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in
Miami. "But this may only be a brief break. It's not over until it's
over."
And it's not over until Nov. 30, a long two months for Floridians who
have had to deal with the stress of preparing for the onslaught of storm
after storm. State officials blame 91 deaths on Hurricanes Charley,
Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.
Aguirre said the season usually peaks between mid-August and
September. He said another peak usually comes in October, and that the
only difference is that by then, storms usually form in the Caribbean and
off the coast of Mexico, instead of off the coast of Africa.
That's because wind shears in October and November tend to make the
Atlantic inhospitable for hurricanes, said Chris Landsea, a research
meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in
Miami.
Landsea noted that the warmer waters of the Caribbean and gulf can
create strong storms, such as Category 3 Hurricane Opal in 1995, which
caused at least 50 deaths in Guatemala and Mexico and 20 deaths in the
United States, and Category 5 Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which killed least
9,000 people in Central America.
The shorter distance those storms need to travel before hitting land
can leave little time for people to prepare, unlike Atlantic storms, which
usually allow days for preparations.
Landsea said that history does show that hurricanes tend to come in
clusters, which means the next couple of weeks could be quiet.
But, he said, when the first two-thirds of a season is active, like
this year, October and November tends to be busy as well.
The good news is that once early November comes, "the large threat
from a major hurricane goes way down," Landsea said.
More good news is that El Nino-like conditions are taking place in the
eastern and central Pacific, said Phil Klotzbach, research associate of
Colorado State University's noted hurricane forecaster William Gray. El
Nino refers to the warming of the Pacific waters and leads to
hurricane-unfriendly wind shears over the Atlantic and Caribbean, he said.
In the past week, shears have increased over the eastern Atlantic, he
said.
"In general, when El Nino takes place, the season tends to end a
little earlier," he said.
But some forecasters are already watching an area of cloudiness in the
southwest Caribbean, where water temperatures have been above normal.
"Even though the odds of getting these hurricanes or storms hitting
the states diminish, you can't leave your guard down," said Tom Kines,
senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc., a commercial weather forecasting
center. "You have to pay attention to the tropics for the next few
months."

(END) Dow Jones Newswires