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DEPRESSIONS TRANSIT TO THE NORTH OF SCOTLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BRUSHES
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST OF ENGLAND. GENERALLY UNSETTLED IN THE
NORTH-WEST AND DRYER IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

The single general pressure chart for the period 11th to 20th October
shows LP to the NW of the country and a trough down to central
England. HP covers the near continent. That means generally westerly
winds for the northern half of the country. Otherwise light southerly
winds in the E of the country and light west or north-westerly winds in
the W. HP is expected to transit the Channel in an easterly direction,
so any dryness is reserved for the south and south-east coasts of
England. The general picture is an unsettled one with generally cool
areas to the west and any mild air coming into the extreme south and
south-east of the country.

On 11th, cool air sweeps through the country but is held back a little
in the west on 12th. Slightly milder air comes into the south and
south-east with the cooler air in the west on 13th. This condition
remains until the 15th. On 16th cooler air sweeps through the
country once again. On the 17th till the end of the period, slightly
milder air comes into the extreme south and south-east, while cooler air
remains out in the west of the country.

The run of weather starts on 11th with LP to the west and north-west of
the British Isles. HP runs along the Channel from W to E. There
could be a secondary disturbance out in the Atlantic coming towards the
SW approaches later on. Winds are mostly SW, strong in the NW and
NE of the country. A front has already gone through and now lies N/S
down the North Sea. Showers in the N and E of the country with the best
weather in the SW.
On 12th, LP to the NW of the country, but the HP in the Channel
has moved to the east and still covers parts of S and SE England. The
secondary should be approaching S Ireland. Winds are SW in the east of
the country and W in the west. Winds still pretty strong near the W
of Scotland. Fronts stretch W/E across Scotland bring rain showers to
Scotland. In the SW of England wind and rain is expected to
arrive.Otherwise mostly dry in the SE of England.
On 13th, LP to the NW of Scotland with a trough down the west
coast of Britain to a depression near SW Ireland. HP near the North
Sea which covers parts of E and SE England. Winds are mostly
southerly over the country but turning SW or W in the south-west of the
country.A front lies from the W coast of Scotland down to the SW of
England. It may be dry down the E of the country at first but E
Scotland is expected to cloud over with the SE remaining mostly dry.
Rain showers in the W of the country. Perhaps improving over Ireland,
later.
On 14th, a belt of LP stretches from the NW of Ireland ENE'wards
towards W Scotland. HP covers the SE of England and the near
continent. Winds are W or SW over most of the country.Fronts are
coming into Ireland, Wales and SW England and moving NE'wards. Heavy
rain expected in the N and NE of Scotland and rain showers spreading
through the country from the SW.
On 15th, a complex area of LP covers W Scotland, Ireland, Wales
and SW England. The southern end of this complex-LP moves NE'ward
across England. Winds are SW at first, turning W later. Fronts lie
from N/S down the W of the country bringing rain to most areas. The
heaviest rain is reserved for the southern half of England.
On 16th, a belt of LP lies from W/E across N Scotland and a flat
HP in the Atlantic comes towards S Ireland and moves eastwards.
Behind the HP, a small depression out in the Atlantic is moving towards
Ireland. Winds are generally W across the country, but may be NW at
first in the SE of England. Fronts have gone through and now lie near
Denmark and Holland. The SE of the country may be dryiest with showers
in western districts. The heaviest rain is expected in Scotland.
On 17th, LP to the N or NW of Scotland and another LP to the NW
of Ireland move slowly ENE. A HP-area over S Ireland, Wales and
England moves eastwards. Winds are light at first but turn SW later.
Fronts are well away over the continent and well to the W of Ireland.
A heavy rain area is forecast for the SW which seems wrong unless the
LP over the Atlantic comes in quickly behind the HP-area. We'll have
to watch what happens.
On 18th, LP to the NW of Britain has a trough SSE'wards towards SW
England. A small depression is expected to develop over S Ireland and
move slowly eastwards into the Channel. Winds are probably strong in
the north but light elsewhere. Fronts appear to have crossed the
southern half of the country pretty quickly and now lie over SE England,
the North Sea and touch N and NW Scotland before curling down towards
Ireland. Heavy rain expected over Scotland and the SW of England.
Otherwise showery conditions expected elsewhere.
On 19th, LP still lies to the N of the country and the small
depression has moved to the S and SE of the country along the
Channel. Pressure begins to rise in the south and east of the country
as an anticyclone comes into the south-west and tries to join up with
HP extending into the North Sea from the continent. Winds are mostly
light and variable. Fronts associated with the Channel-depression
drift across southern districts in an eastward direction. Another
front may run W/E across northern Scotland Heavy rain expected in
Scotland, showers elsewhere, but mostly dry in the SW of the country.
On 20th, a large LP lies to the NW of the country and an
anticyclone moves eastwards along the Channel covering the most of
south and south-east England. Winds are generally SW over the country
but light in the south and south-east of England. A front has gone
through the SE of the country and now lies near Holland. Another set
of fronts associated with the LP to the NW of the country lies over W
Scotland and to the W of Northern Ireland. Heavy rain expected over
Scotland and rain showers expected elsewhere. Only the south and
south-east of the country should be dryer.

The next period, 21st to 31st October, will be more settled. A ridge
of HP stretching N/S over the continent should drift over the British
Isles for a few days, bringing fine dry weather to southern and eastern
parts of England and probably the eastern parts of Scotland, too. .
Unfortunately light winds with frost and fog cannot be ruled out. HP
is then expected to come in from the Atlantic bringing cooler winds to
western areas, before LP takes over from the north-west at the end.
That's what the general charts indicate, I wonder whether the
daily-charts will support that. More details next time.

Cheers, Keith