I understand that Mt St Helens is likely to blow any day now - any thoughts
on how this will change our weather this Autumn, or will it have to be a
huge event to have any effect here ?

live web cam of the mountain at

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

--
Paul Crabtree
Brampton N.E. Cumbria 117m ASL
Climatological Station 7076

http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk

In article ,
says...
I understand that Mt St Helens is likely to blow any day now - any thoughts
on how this will change our weather this Autumn, or will it have to be a
huge event to have any effect here ?


Just had a minor eruption which started about half an hour ago if
anybodies interested.

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

--
Alan LeHun

On Mon, 4 Oct 2004 18:26:19 +0100, Alan LeHun wrote:


Just had a minor eruption which started about half an hour ago if
anybodies interested.

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

Fascinating ; thanks for that link. However looks pretty quiet at the
moment!

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

I was pondering this this morning. If debris gets injected into the stratosphere
in any large quantities then I would say that next summer could be a lot cooler
(and perhaps wetter) than normal. Major volcano eruptions tend to cool the earth
temporarily. The eruption could be too late now to give us a cold winter as it
takes time for the debris to spread out in the upper atmosphere.

Will.
--
" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paul Crabtree wrote in message ...
I understand that Mt St Helens is likely to blow any day now - any thoughts
on how this will change our weather this Autumn, or will it have to be a
huge event to have any effect here ?

live web cam of the mountain at

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

--
Paul Crabtree
Brampton N.E. Cumbria 117m ASL
Climatological Station 7076

http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk

"Will" wrote in message
...
I was pondering this this morning. If debris gets injected into the
stratosphere
in any large quantities then I would say that next summer could be a
lot cooler
(and perhaps wetter) than normal. Major volcano eruptions tend to cool
the earth
temporarily. The eruption could be too late now to give us a cold
winter as it
takes time for the debris to spread out in the upper atmosphere.

.... the 1980 event ejected material into the stratosphere, but the
primary thrust of the explosion was horizontal rather than vertical, and
if I understand the data correctly, the stratospheric loading from that
was minimal. As you say, whether this one would do something different
will be interesting to say the least. However, I wonder if Mt. St.Helens
is a bit far north for major long-lasting effects anyway: I understand
that to have world-wide impact, the event would need to be in the
tropical/sub-tropical belt? However, would be glad to be corrected if
anyone has got more on this.

Martin.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...

... the 1980 event ejected material into the stratosphere, but the
primary thrust of the explosion was horizontal rather than vertical,
and if I understand the data correctly, the stratospheric loading from
that was minimal. As you say, whether this one would do something
different will be interesting to say the least. However, I wonder if
Mt. St.Helens is a bit far north for major long-lasting effects
anyway: I understand that to have world-wide impact, the event would
need to be in the tropical/sub-tropical belt? However, would be glad
to be corrected if anyone has got more on this.

Just to follow up on this.... these higher latitude events can have
*regional* / local effects of course - here a note I have of the Laki
event with dates given:

1783/84: Icelandic volcanic eruption (Laki): Primary eruptions (five)
from June 8th to July 8th, 1783(60% of the total volume of ejection),
but minor eruptions occurred until early February, 1784. A major event,
with huge production of sulphur & acid products. The majority of
emissions are thought to have been confined to the troposphere, but the
initial ejections of each of the five major events did penetrate the
tropopause into the stratosphere. The intense period of eruption tallied
with contemporary reports across Europe of a blue haze or dry-fog in the
atmosphere, damage to vegetation and occurrence of respiratory problems.
These effects are consistent with increased atmospheric loading of acid
aerosols, particularly sulphates.

Because of the lack of major stratospheric impact, there is controversy
surrounding this event: For Iceland itself, the following winter
(1783/84) was known as the 'Famine Winter': 25% of the population died.
However, did it really cause changes to the regional/European climate in
the years 1783, 1784 etc?



Martin.

However, did it really cause changes to the regional/European climate in
the years 1783, 1784 etc?

Yes,see
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU04...04-J-05244.pdf
and
Atmospheric impact of the 1783-1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic effect of sulphate aerosol
E. J. Highwood and D. S. Stevenson
ACP V3 Page(s) 1177-1189. SRef-ID: 1680-7324/acp/2003-3-1177
freely available at
http://www.cosis.net/members/journal...j_id=2&i_id=28


--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
However, did it really cause changes to the regional/European
climate in
the years 1783, 1784 etc?

Yes,see
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU04...04-J-05244.pdf
and
Atmospheric impact of the 1783-1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic
effect of sulphate aerosol
E. J. Highwood and D. S. Stevenson
ACP V3 Page(s) 1177-1189. SRef-ID: 1680-7324/acp/2003-3-1177
freely available at
http://www.cosis.net/members/journal...j_id=2&i_id=28

.... many thanks for those: I originally did not query the effect, then I
found a couple of years ago some remarks (haven't got the refs) that
cast doubt ... and the following in the CRU extract also is confusing:

" Benjamin Franklin, in 1783, first postulated that major volcanic
eruptions affect climate, after the eruption of the Laki volcano in
Iceland. Ironically, most of the ejected material from this eruption
remained in the lower parts of the atmosphere, so Franklin had the right
idea but the wrong volcano. "

These extracts you have posted though are later than the CRU information
sheet, so obviously follow-up work has confirmed the original (i.e.
Franklin) ideas for Laki specifically.

Whatever, a fascinating area of research and one of the teasing
'variables' in the GW debate!

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

"Waghorn" wrote in message


However, did it really cause changes to the regional/European climate in
the years 1783, 1784 etc?

No, see, sulphur is not easily converted to sulphuric acid. I don't know
the whys and wherefores but the underlying tendency to describe sulphur
oxides as sulphuric acid, while irritating from news reporters, is in
chronic bad taste from scientific journals.

One would suspect that there is an abject need for it to be sulphuric
acid to fit their needs and explanations.

http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU04...04-J-05244.pdf

Is it anything to do with the fact that the peresence of sulphur dioxide
in dilute quantities is beneficial? Or does it not fit the climate
models or what?


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

In article ,
Martin Rowley writes:
However, I wonder if Mt. St.Helens
is a bit far north for major long-lasting effects anyway: I understand
that to have world-wide impact, the event would need to be in the
tropical/sub-tropical belt? However, would be glad to be corrected if
anyone has got more on this.

ISTR HH Lamb saying that in "Climate, History and the Modern World."
--
John Hall

You can divide people into two categories:
those who divide people into two categories and those who don't