In pondering where Metcheck get their winter predictions from, it did
just occur to me that AB has been scanning the SST for the Atlantic, and
has noticed (like others of us) that at long last the SST's around the
UK and to the west are below average. How long this particular anomaly
will last I'm not sure, but if it persisted, then it might mean that at
least the northerlies had a bit more bite than has been the case in the
last few winters.

Will etc., perhaps could tell us as to what degree the SST's might also
affect circulation patterns.

The isotherm charts also seem to have a more flat look, suggesting a
possibly slightly weaker than average NAD?

Just a thought,

Cheers,

--
James Brown

"James Brown" wrote in message
...
In pondering where Metcheck get their winter predictions from, it did just
occur to me that AB has been scanning the SST for the Atlantic, and has
noticed (like others of us) that at long last the SST's around the UK and
to the west are below average. How long this particular anomaly will last
I'm not sure, but if it persisted, then it might mean that at least the
northerlies had a bit more bite than has been the case in the last few
winters.

Will etc., perhaps could tell us as to what degree the SST's might also
affect circulation patterns.

The isotherm charts also seem to have a more flat look, suggesting a
possibly slightly weaker than average NAD?

Just a thought,

Cheers,

--
James Brown

The only problem is that to the NNW, N and NE, they are still + 2 or more
degrees warmer than the 1970-2000 norm.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

I've no idea what this may mean in terms of overall circulation patterns but
any northerlies over those waters with the ice edge well to the north of its
long term climatological norm would not have that much "bite" I wouldn't
have thought. So although they would hardly be 'warm', I would not have
thought that they would be excessively cold either. What any Easterlies may
be like later in the winter if we get any though, then who knows? It was
Easterlies that were lacking last year once October was over, as IIRC was
correctly forecast by Paul Bartlett last Autumn.

Unlike the Media hype attached to it, what AB has forecast, i.e. the coldest
winter of the 'Century' so far does not mean a lot other than it may not be
as mild as the previous 4 of this 'Century', hardly a major issue. It does
not mean necessarily a '63 or '47 or anything like it. Furthermore, I know
the TWO page is not always given full credit here but as of yesterday, they
were backing up the colder winter idea with a perfectly plausible and based
on present fact idea, i.e. low current Solar surface activity. This coming
after last years record high activity (right at the time of the NH
heatwave!).

As always at this time of year, in about 4 months time, we will know the
answer :-)

Regards

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

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