In all the hullabaloo of the winter forecast they pushed out last week,
I kept reading the statement that they were the only ones who forecast
the 'summer washout'. This has been paraded on numerous news sites as
fact.

Is this true? How accurate was their summer forecast and what forecasts
(if any) did any other met organisations produce?

Dave Lester

"Dave Lester" wrote in message
...
In all the hullabaloo of the winter forecast they pushed out last week,
I kept reading the statement that they were the only ones who forecast
the 'summer washout'. This has been paraded on numerous news sites as
fact.

Is this true? How accurate was their summer forecast and what forecasts
(if any) did any other met organisations produce?

ISTR reading on this group that they predicted that *early* summer would
be a washout. What actually happened of course that early summer was
quite good and it was *August* that was the washout.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"Col" wrote in message
...

ISTR reading on this group that they predicted that *early* summer
would
be a washout. What actually happened of course that early summer was
quite good and it was *August* that was the washout.


At various times I (amongst others) made comments on the forecast as
published in the national media: using Google, have come up with the
following ..... (admittedly based on our local / east Berkshire weather
... as the summer wore on, the variability across the country became
rather more marked).

May ....
"Incidentally, after this essentially fine and often warm May, I glanced
up at my noticeboard and re-read the forecast published in the "Sun"
last March from our friends in MetCheck:... "Cool and wet weather will
continue until the end of the month, when a mini-heatwave will see
temperatures soar to the late 20's" I'm hoping that the forecast for
June ('cool and wet') will be of equal quality ;-) [ May was on the dry
side for many - notably so for some, and with above average
temperatures.]

June ....

"June almost certainly will not stay as warm and dry as it has been up
to now (in the south), but even if the weather were to turn dramatically
wet and cold NOW, the lack of any mention of the past 16 days of fine,
warm or very warm and exceptionally dry conditions is a major error no
matter how you massage the overall monthly figures. [ Metcheck as
published in the media implied a cool, wet June overall .... in fact,
although some notable 'bad weather' events did occur (notably deep low
23rd, Kinloss record rainfall etc.), there was an extended period of
fine weather in the first-third (roughly) of the month which was not
indicated)

"July ....

Just to round off the analysis of MetCheck forecast for summer (as
printed in the Sun) ... the text printed was:- "The first two weeks will
be dull and wet. In the third week there will be a heatwave but then it
will be back to cool weather." For many, the first two weeks were dull
and often wet, so for you, it was correct. However, as noted by me and
others, many of us in the southeast (where a lot of people live & where
a lot of retail business is done), have had essentially dry (locally
very dry) & fair-to-fine weather after the 9th. I would personally
though accept the general thrust of the forecast, *if* it hadn't been
spoiled by the 'there will be a heatwave' for the third week. Not only
did the highest temperatures come in the last week, but not everyone has
shared in what most would call a 'heatwave'; finally, the last week has
not been 'back to cool weather' for many - and indeed for some, it was
not a case of 'back to',but a continuation of."

There was no indication of the weather for August, so that could not be
verified.

I don't have a problem with MetCheck or anyone else having a go at
seasonal forecasting - but I wish it was clearer that the forecast is
based on work done elsewhere (i.e. the CPC in the US) which in turn is
based on much research over many years by meteorologists all over the
world: MetCheck package the data - very well in my view - but the source
(and credit where due) should go to those that produce the original
data.

Martin.

In article , "Dave Lester" writes:

In all the hullabaloo of the winter forecast they pushed out last week,
I kept reading the statement that they were the only ones who forecast
the 'summer washout'. This has been paraded on numerous news sites as
fact.

Is this true?


No. Metcheck forecast an EARLY summer "washout", as featured on ITN at the
time by their "science" correspondent, Lawrence McGinty.

The Met Office said the forecast was "irresponsible".

It also turned out to be false.

However, this has now miraculously been "revised" into a forecast for the
summer as a whole, and is being hailed by news media all over the country.




How accurate was their summer forecast...

Did they ever issue one?



... and what forecasts
(if any) did any other met organisations produce?

Dunno. I don't bother with such speculation that much.



Cheers,


keith




---
Iraq: 6 thousand million pounds, 70 lives, and counting...
The Politicians will now seek to blame the Spooks.

"Col" wrote in message
...

ISTR reading on this group that they predicted that *early* summer would
be a washout. What actually happened of course that early summer was
quite good and it was *August* that was the washout.

Col

...and don't forget last week's "The cold snap next week is nature giving us
a taste of what is to come in the next few months."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/w0x15.gif

Hohum.

Jon. (currently +14°C in semi-tropical east Devon)

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/w0x15.gif

oops
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/lib/incl...ty/exeter.html
is a bit more interesting :-)

Jon.