Is it me or are the low pressure systems affecting the UK at present coming
in from much further South than normal?
Can't remember who it was, but one of the regular NG members posted the
entire synoptic situation leading up to and including the severe winter of
1947. During that winter the lows were mainly to our South. Could we as
some have suggested, indeed be leading up to a severe winter?

Shaun Pudwell.

Can't remember who it was, but one of the regular NG members posted the
entire synoptic situation leading up to and including the severe winter of
1947. During that winter the lows were mainly to our South. Could we as
some have suggested, indeed be leading up to a severe winter?

Do you mean this one?

www.winter1947.co.uk

I've recently gathered a bit more info on that winter and hope to add some
extra pages over the next few weeks. I also have many of the DWR charts for
December 1946 and early January 1947 which I didn't include in the original
website - perhaps, if I get the time, I may add these as well.

George in Epping, West Essex (107m asl)
www.eppingweather.co.uk

"George Booth" wrote in message
...
Can't remember who it was, but one of the regular NG members posted the
entire synoptic situation leading up to and including the severe winter of
1947. During that winter the lows were mainly to our South. Could we as
some have suggested, indeed be leading up to a severe winter?

Do you mean this one?

www.winter1947.co.uk

I've recently gathered a bit more info on that winter and hope to add some
extra pages over the next few weeks. I also have many of the DWR charts for
December 1946 and early January 1947 which I didn't include in the original
website - perhaps, if I get the time, I may add these as well.

George in Epping, West Essex (107m asl)
www.eppingweather.co.uk

Interestingly, I can find only one year which falls in more than one
column; 1740. So even if we have a cold winter which is in the
top ten, it will most likely be there for only one month. Anyone,
predicting a cold winter ought to specify which month that will be.

OTOH, since I am predicting a warm winter, perhaps I should
specify which month I think will exceed its average the most :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...
Is it me or are the low pressure systems affecting the UK at present
coming
in from much further South than normal?
Can't remember who it was, but one of the regular NG members posted the
entire synoptic situation leading up to and including the severe winter of
1947. During that winter the lows were mainly to our South. Could we as
some have suggested, indeed be leading up to a severe winter?

Shaun Pudwell.



Don't fall into the trap Shaun :-), but I think I know what you mean. I am
not going to make any comment on forecasts at all. People are still telling
me about the forecast cold weather last week.
We must not forget though that it is only October. Just think about
October and November 1978 - and then what happened after all that.

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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I wouldn't like to bet against it Shaun !
In climate change, massive flip-flops are on the cards.
Extremely hot one year, extremely cold the next.
But we shall see.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
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Shaun Pudwell wrote in message ...
Is it me or are the low pressure systems affecting the UK at present coming
in from much further South than normal?
Can't remember who it was, but one of the regular NG members posted the
entire synoptic situation leading up to and including the severe winter of
1947. During that winter the lows were mainly to our South. Could we as
some have suggested, indeed be leading up to a severe winter?

Shaun Pudwell.

On Sat, 23 Oct 2004 14:41:11 +0100, "Gavin Staples"
inspired by Deep Thought wrote:

Just think about
October and November 1978 - and then what happened after all that.



Which bears out my theory that as the weather this year has very much followed
the same pattern as 1978, we will get a cold winter this year. We have already
had a very cold early July, a wet August and a dry, sunny & warm September, all
exactly as per 1978. November 1978 was indeed mild and very wet - and then the
winter really closed its grip on us in mid December - snow lay on the ground
continuously in Solihull where I lived at the time for ten weeks and we were
still getting snowfalls in late March 1979!! We shall see!

I think some people were a little harsh on those predicting cold weather last
week: most weather runs showed a real cold northerly blast over the UK with
850mB temps -5C or lower over most of the UK. What happened was that the jet
stream plunged south further to the west than expected and then turned
north-east bringing in very mild SW winds to the UK instead of arctic
northerlies as expected. This situation can prove very unpredictable with such
strongly meridional types of jet that we have seen a lot of this year: i.e the
jet can flip very quickly and bring in very cold weather within a day or two and
vice versa.

Nigel

Aagh! Every time I learn something new... it pushes something old out of my brain!