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Old October 31st 04, 06:04 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (31/10/04)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon (GMT) on Thursday.
Issued 0603z, 31/10/04.

After an unsettled end to the working week it looks reasonably likely that
there'll be a northerly plunge, possibly followed by more settled weather as
a high topples over the UK. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A trough covers the Northern Isles, leading to westerlies and WNW'lies for
the UK. A large high builds to the west at T+144, bringing northerlies for
all. The high then topples over the UK at T+168, resulting in westerlies for
Scotland and Northern Ireland, with ENE'lies for much of England and Wales.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Strong westerlies and NW'lies are affecting the UK, due to low pressure to
the north. The low fills and sinks SE'wards at T+144, with strong NW'lies
and northerlies persisting.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under westerlies due to a secondary low over Scotland, with
850hPa temperatures from -2C over Northern Ireland to +1C over Kent. The
winds become northerlies at T+144 as a ridge topples over Scotland, followed
by light winds for many areas as high pressure moves over the UK on day 7.
There's little change on day 8, but by day 9 the high retrogresses and
ridges northwards, bringing northerlies. The main high recentres to the west
on day 10, leaving the UK under a ridge and anticyclonic winds.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows low pressure north of Scotland and westerlies for
all. By T+144 the winds become stronger westerlies and northerlies as the
low moves over Scandinavia.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...310000_120.gif
The UK lies under a trough, with SW'lies or westerlies for most areas.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A WNW'ly or westerly flow covers the UK as the resut of a high to the SW and
low pressure to the north. The high builds northwards at T+144, bringing
northerlies for all. By T+168 the high lies to the north of Scotland, with
easterlies across the UK; the easterlies continue for much of the UK on day
8, although low pressure south of Ireland brings southerlies for parts of
England and Wales.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
Unavailable at time of issue.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
Also unavailable.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A ridge covers Biscay, leading to westerlies for the UK.

MM5: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...6hrn.hr120.gif
High pressure is centred over Biscay, bringing easterlies to England and
Wales with SW'lies or SSW'lies elsewhere.

MM5 Snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
No snow is expected to lie over the UK at T+120.



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