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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon (GMT) on Thursday.
Issued 0603z, 31/10/04. After an unsettled end to the working week it looks reasonably likely that there'll be a northerly plunge, possibly followed by more settled weather as a high topples over the UK. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif A trough covers the Northern Isles, leading to westerlies and WNW'lies for the UK. A large high builds to the west at T+144, bringing northerlies for all. The high then topples over the UK at T+168, resulting in westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with ENE'lies for much of England and Wales. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Strong westerlies and NW'lies are affecting the UK, due to low pressure to the north. The low fills and sinks SE'wards at T+144, with strong NW'lies and northerlies persisting. GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif The UK lies under westerlies due to a secondary low over Scotland, with 850hPa temperatures from -2C over Northern Ireland to +1C over Kent. The winds become northerlies at T+144 as a ridge topples over Scotland, followed by light winds for many areas as high pressure moves over the UK on day 7. There's little change on day 8, but by day 9 the high retrogresses and ridges northwards, bringing northerlies. The main high recentres to the west on day 10, leaving the UK under a ridge and anticyclonic winds. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows low pressure north of Scotland and westerlies for all. By T+144 the winds become stronger westerlies and northerlies as the low moves over Scandinavia. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...310000_120.gif The UK lies under a trough, with SW'lies or westerlies for most areas. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html A WNW'ly or westerly flow covers the UK as the resut of a high to the SW and low pressure to the north. The high builds northwards at T+144, bringing northerlies for all. By T+168 the high lies to the north of Scotland, with easterlies across the UK; the easterlies continue for much of the UK on day 8, although low pressure south of Ireland brings southerlies for parts of England and Wales. NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif Unavailable at time of issue. GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml Also unavailable. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif A ridge covers Biscay, leading to westerlies for the UK. MM5: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...6hrn.hr120.gif High pressure is centred over Biscay, bringing easterlies to England and Wales with SW'lies or SSW'lies elsewhere. MM5 Snow forecast: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif No snow is expected to lie over the UK at T+120. |
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