UK in cold November shock
Our forecast for November is now online and it suggests the possibility of
something very unusual - a month where temperatures in the UK are not above
the long term average. We think the probabilities favour outbreaks of
significantly colder conditions at times along with a good chance of
snowfall in central and northern areas and even possibly in parts of the
south.
The colder conditions are set to be brought about by high pressure in the
mid-Atlantic which will allow northerly winds to push across the UK.
Northerly outbreaks can be rather hit and miss affairs as we explained
recently, and they rarely persisit for long periods of time. So this means
milder spells of weather are also likely at times, especially in the south
of the UK.

Source: TWO.

My Comment:
Interesting, so what do you all think?

--
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Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


"Inventories can be managed, but people must be led". H. Ross Perot. ~ US
Naval Commander and author.

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Sounds like an average November to me, covering all bases.
To quote
"temperatures in the UK not above the long term average, cold at times, mild
at times,
chance of snow in the north and possibly in the south too".
Average indeed.
Temporary Atlantic blocks in November are nothing to get excited about.
According to Paul Bartlett's research(?) - a cool and wet November is one of
the most reliable preludes to snowy winters.

PS. October is set to be a colder than average month in this part of the
country, but only just! And nothing like as cool as the previous two.
I truely don't believe that conditions in October have any bearing on the
following winter. But there might be something in Paul Bartletts thoughts
about Novembers?


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ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
UK in cold November shock
Our forecast for November is now online and it suggests the possibility of
something very unusual - a month where temperatures in the UK are not
above
the long term average. We think the probabilities favour outbreaks of
significantly colder conditions at times along with a good chance of
snowfall in central and northern areas and even possibly in parts of the
south.
The colder conditions are set to be brought about by high pressure in the
mid-Atlantic which will allow northerly winds to push across the UK.
Northerly outbreaks can be rather hit and miss affairs as we explained
recently, and they rarely persisit for long periods of time. So this means
milder spells of weather are also likely at times, especially in the south
of the UK.

Source: TWO.

My Comment:
Interesting, so what do you all think?

--
************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


"Inventories can be managed, but people must be led". H. Ross Perot. ~
US
Naval Commander and author.

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.

************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
I truely don't believe that conditions in October have any bearing on the
following winter. But there might be something in Paul Bartletts thoughts
about Novembers?





Good point Alex, I agree entirely.

Seems to be a forecast based on the sypnotic charts for later next
week and I guess a pattern that will repeat itself over the next two
months. As Christmas approaches I guess it's timing of one such
northerly outbreak that will make the difference.

One thing to note this year, compared with the last few Octobers (2000
+), is that northern Scandinavia has not had any significant cold. The
last few years I have often noted that they have got colder very
quickly later in October, with -20°c often reported. At the time I was
thinking this maybe an indication of a very cold plunge east later in
the year for the uk. However, this never seems to materialise.

Maybe with nothing out of the ordinary this year in that region we may
see something different in the weather type over the coming months. Of
course nothing scientific here, just an observation and of course I am
suggesting a hard winter :-)

Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sun, 31 Oct 2004 13:09:08 -0000, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

Sounds like an average November to me, covering all bases.
To quote
"temperatures in the UK not above the long term average, cold at times, mild
at times,
chance of snow in the north and possibly in the south too".
Average indeed.
Temporary Atlantic blocks in November are nothing to get excited about.
According to Paul Bartlett's research(?) - a cool and wet November is one of
the most reliable preludes to snowy winters.

PS. October is set to be a colder than average month in this part of the
country, but only just! And nothing like as cool as the previous two.
I truely don't believe that conditions in October have any bearing on the
following winter. But there might be something in Paul Bartletts thoughts
about Novembers?

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
.
of course I am
suggesting a hard winter :-)

Keith (Southend)



I just had to clip and comment on that little bit :-) I like it Keith.
You're joking of course really. We know you too well mate :-)

..... Seems to be a forecast based on the sypnotic charts for later next
week.

Just what I was about to say - really a short term forecast which will be
claimed as a longer term prediction if it happens.

Dave

In message , Alex Stephens Jr
writes
Sounds like an average November to me, covering all bases.
To quote
"temperatures in the UK not above the long term average, cold at times, mild
at times,
chance of snow in the north and possibly in the south too".
Average indeed.
Temporary Atlantic blocks in November are nothing to get excited about.
According to Paul Bartlett's research(?) - a cool and wet November is one of
the most reliable preludes to snowy winters.

PS. October is set to be a colder than average month in this part of the
country, but only just! And nothing like as cool as the previous two.
I truely don't believe that conditions in October have any bearing on the
following winter. But there might be something in Paul Bartletts thoughts
about Novembers?
With the usual exceptions most cold wet Novembers are followed by cold
snowy winters. The emphasis on 'wet'.
Whether you call my work research or not doesn't matter.
I do wish people would say why they expect a cold wet November (in this
case) Cuts out the 'I feel' it will be a cold winter, and similar
unhelpful comments.
As I have already mentioned I may not issue another winter forecast,
because the climate of UK has changed so dramatically that I really
don't feel I can put my usual emphasis on periodicies and similarites.
No model I can find tonight would seem to indicate prolonged unsettled,
and cold weather this month, but then they do conflict more than usual
so we shall have to wait and see.
Autumn so far would seem to indicate an average winter- which becomes
mild when you take in climatic change.
I may put the work in and demonstrate why I do not think it will be cold
winter - but then of course the figures may come up with such a forecast
that I simply have to objectively go for a cold one.
We shall see. If I publish a forecast it will be around the middle of
this month.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS

After I had posted I then noticed that I had missed "not" from the
sentence. All the same it was just a tongue in cheek comment.


Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sun, 31 Oct 2004 17:26:29 -0000, "Gavin Staples"
wrote:


"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
.. .
.
of course I am
suggesting a hard winter :-)

Keith (Southend)



I just had to clip and comment on that little bit :-) I like it Keith.
You're joking of course really. We know you too well mate :-)

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
UK in cold November shock
Our forecast for November is now online and it suggests the possibility of
something very unusual - a month where temperatures in the UK are not
above
the long term average. We think the probabilities favour outbreaks of
significantly colder conditions at times along with a good chance of
snowfall in central and northern areas and even possibly in parts of the
south.
The colder conditions are set to be brought about by high pressure in the
mid-Atlantic which will allow northerly winds to push across the UK.
Northerly outbreaks can be rather hit and miss affairs as we explained
recently, and they rarely persisit for long periods of time. So this means
milder spells of weather are also likely at times, especially in the south
of the UK.

Source: TWO.

My Comment:
Interesting, so what do you all think?

--
************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


"Inventories can be managed, but people must be led". H. Ross Perot. ~
US
Naval Commander and author.

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.

************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **
My piece of seaweed tells me 7.1 ° C for the November CET

keith chaplin
--
Remove Caps for e mail

Well I think it will be cooler than it is now with temperatures in the S.E
between 5C and 9C with night frost. In other words a typical cooler mid
November type of weather!

Dave