Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0618z, 9/11/04.

The runs are now split. The main ones (MetO, ECM, GFS) all show this
weekend's cold spell being a shortlived affair, with lows travelling around
the displaced Azores High to bring a form of zonality thereafter. Many of
the minor runs still show a colder northerly blast, but I'd say the chances
of more than a couple of days of cold weather across the UK are receding. As
ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Northerlies cover the UK as the result of a large high to the SW. The high
sinks SE'wards at T+144, bringing westerlies followed by stronger westerlies
at T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The MetO run shows a ridge to the NW and a high to the SW, leading to
northerlies and NNW'lies; they're near gale force over Scotland. The ridge
topples SE'wards at T+144, bringing a continuation of northerlies for most.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under westerlies, NW'lies and northerlies as the result of a
large high to the WSW. The high declines at T+144, allowing westerlies to
affect all areas.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows high pressure to the NE of the Azores, with lows
moving around it. A ridge extends northwards to Iceland, bringing strong
NNW'lies across the UK. 850hPa temperatrues range from -8C over northern
Scotland to -2C over SW England. The ridge moves over the UK at T+144,
bringing ligh winds for most.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...090000_120.gif
Unavailable today.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows NNW'lies for all due to high pressure to the WSW.
850hPa temperatures vary from -10C over northern Scotland to -5C over
Cornwall. The winds become northerlies at T+144 as a ridge moves eastwards,
followed by SW'lies and NNE'lies on day 7 as the ridge topples over the UK.
Day 8 sees the high centred over Wales with SW'lies for Northern Ireland and
Scotland.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
Northerlies cover the UK, with high pressure to the WSW.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
An elongated high lies to the west, with strong to gale force northerlies
over the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
Northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK as the result of a high west of the
British Isles.

MM5: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...6hrn.hr120.gif
The UK lies under strong to gale force northerlies and (mainly) sub 528dam
air, with high pressure to the west.

MM5 Snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0618z, 9/11/04.

The runs are now split. The main ones (MetO, ECM, GFS) all show this
weekend's cold spell being a shortlived affair, with lows travelling around
the displaced Azores High to bring a form of zonality thereafter. Many of
the minor runs still show a colder northerly blast, but I'd say the chances
of more than a couple of days of cold weather across the UK are receding. As
ever, more runs are needed.

The first widespread air frost then?

My lowest min so far has been 3.0C and I think there has been very little air
frost outside of the Scottish Highlands and a few spots in SE England.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"Col" wrote in message ...
The first widespread air frost then?

My lowest min so far has been 3.0C and I think there has been very little
air
frost outside of the Scottish Highlands and a few spots in SE England.
From the 00z GFS run, it's looking like Saturday night will see temperatures
falling to 3C or so quite widely by dawn. The chart for Sunday night into
Monday shows a few zeroes over the Midlands and by Monday night minima are
forecast to be 8s and 9s.

http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn12617.gif (this'll change around 11 AM today).

So, I'd say a widespread ground frost is on the cards but I couldn't say the
same about an air frost. Sunday night is still a fair way off, so I wouldn't
be surprised to see things change a bit before then!

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0618z, 9/11/04.

but I'd say the chances
of more than a couple of days of cold weather across the UK are receding.
As
ever, more runs are needed.



That seems to be the story in many winters. I have not had an air frost yet.
My coldest night so far this season is 3C. The garden is behaving
accordingly. I wonder when we will get our first air frost in the South.

Gavin.

South Cambs.