Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 22 Feb 2005 12:24:58 -0000, "Jon O'Rourke"
wrote:

Multiple maps have been issued today depicting the risk areas over the
next
3 days http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/.../warnings.html

Thursday's warning map has the 50% risk line curving back Eastwards
alarmingly (for snow lovers) along the South Coast. Does this indicate
a significantly lower probability of the precipitation remaining as
snow, rather than rain or sleet, in the South?

Given that the precip. is coming from the east I suspect this is the main
reason for the way the disruptive probabilities have been drawn. Sleet is
more likely over immediate coastal areas (but not exclusively so) and given
that the flow will be coming off the land I'd have thought there's a high
prob. it being of snow in your part of the world, Dave. Either way Thursday
is still looking very interesting and that's not to say the next 24 hours
won't be either.

12Z MetO T+48 http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack1.gif
12Z NMM T+45 http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/me...22/PCP0345.PNG
18Z GFS precip. type T+42
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cg...b8acc9c d43da

Cheers,
Jon.

Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 22 Feb 2005 12:24:58 -0000, "Jon O'Rourke"
wrote:

Multiple maps have been issued today depicting the risk areas over the
next
3 days http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/.../warnings.html

Thursday's warning map has the 50% risk line curving back Eastwards
alarmingly (for snow lovers) along the South Coast. Does this indicate
a significantly lower probability of the precipitation remaining as
snow, rather than rain or sleet, in the South?

Given that the precip. is coming from the east I suspect this is the main
reason for the way the disruptive probabilities have been drawn. Sleet is
more likely over immediate coastal areas (but not exclusively so) and given
that the flow will be coming off the land I'd have thought there's a high
prob. it being of snow in your part of the world, Dave. Either way Thursday
is still looking very interesting and that's not to say the next 24 hours
won't be either.

12Z MetO T+48 http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack1.gif
12Z NMM T+45 http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/me...22/PCP0345.PNG
18Z GFS precip. type T+42
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cg...b8acc9c d43da

Cheers,
Jon.

Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 22 Feb 2005 12:24:58 -0000, "Jon O'Rourke"
wrote:

Multiple maps have been issued today depicting the risk areas over the
next
3 days http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/.../warnings.html

Thursday's warning map has the 50% risk line curving back Eastwards
alarmingly (for snow lovers) along the South Coast. Does this indicate
a significantly lower probability of the precipitation remaining as
snow, rather than rain or sleet, in the South?

Given that the precip. is coming from the east I suspect this is the main
reason for the way the disruptive probabilities have been drawn. Sleet is
more likely over immediate coastal areas (but not exclusively so) and given
that the flow will be coming off the land I'd have thought there's a high
prob. it being of snow in your part of the world, Dave. Either way Thursday
is still looking very interesting and that's not to say the next 24 hours
won't be either.

12Z MetO T+48 http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack1.gif
12Z NMM T+45 http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/me...22/PCP0345.PNG
18Z GFS precip. type T+42
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cg...b8acc9c d43da

Cheers,
Jon.