"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

"Gianna Stefani" wrote in message
...
"Dave.C" wrote in message
. ..

I am praying this will be a hard winter, not for my usual selfish
reasons,
but to spare Metcheque the most massive egg on face since MF "no
hurricane, madam". !

Although he was of course correct, both for the UK and for the part of
the
world to which he (and the lady) were referring.

'urban myths' ... why do I have to keep reading the MF myth even though
I
live 'in the country' ... sigh.

Have your ever thought, Gianna, that Mike Fish's own
version might be the mythical one?

Here is the full transcript of the first part of his 1325z broadcast,
published in the Meteorological Office Report: The Storm of
15-16 October 1987, Met.O., December 1987, p 4.19:

snipped

I confess that I had not thought that Philip, perhaps because of my own
memory (I was watching that report) which may or may not be generally
accurate.
In either case, my point is that IMVHO he remains correct and with no 'egg
on face' ... regardless of where the alleged lady may have been ... he
definitely said there was no hurricane on the way, and there was no
hurricane. I would be interested to know if there has *ever* been a
hurricane, in the UK, inland, and I suspect you are the man to tell me (:

Gianna

I was always amazed that someone could actually ring through with a message.
In 1987 as now it was almost impossible to get a details of any sort through
that would actually be read out before a broadcast.
In the January 1987 snows a colleague of mine tried to impart some
information about the terrible conditions in Kent giving some description of
the conditions on the roads with current temperatures, wind speeds etc and
having finally got through was told " you should not be out in these
conditions" and hung up.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Have your ever thought, Gianna, that Mike Fish's own
version might be the mythical one?

I'm sure I heard, probably on here, that there was no phone call ?

Jon.

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Here is the full transcript of the first part of his 1325z broadcast,
published in the Meteorological Office Report: The Storm of
15-16 October 1987, Met.O., December 1987, p 4.19:

"Good afternoon earlier on today apparently a woman rang the
BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way.
Well of you are watching don't worry, there isn't. But having said
that actually the weather will become very windy but most of
the strong winds incidentally will be down over Spain and across
France as well but there is a vicious looking area of low pressure
on our doorstep nevertheless, around the Brittany area and
that is going to head across the southeastern corner of the
country bringing if nothing else a lot of rain with it. On the
satellite picture you can see that there is of course a lot of
cloud as well as a lot of rain stretching right across Europe and
indeed most areas there are just as unsettled as we are having
some outbreaks of rain. That's the way the rainfall pattern is
looking at the moment, a lot of shading, a lot of rain across
many parts of Europe. Let's zoom in a little bit closer and
have a look at the British scene though, as you can see rain
is now further north left over from last nights weather system.
Now as I run the sequence you can see just how quickly the
rain comes up from France, affects many southern and eastern
areas and then eventually later on tonight clears on out of the
way and leaves us tomorrow in a fairly stiff run of westerly
winds bringing along quite a few showers."

[Spelling and punctuation as in the report's transcript]

Philip Eden


I like that, and it clears up a lot of the stick that Michael Fish got for
this. I like this bit though.

leaves us tomorrow in a fairly stiff run of westerly
winds bringing along quite a few showers."

Well the wind was certainly stiff all right.

On Fri, 26 Nov 2004 10:48:07 -0000, "Gavin Staples"
wrote:


"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Here is the full transcript of the first part of his 1325z broadcast,
published in the Meteorological Office Report: The Storm of
15-16 October 1987, Met.O., December 1987, p 4.19:

"Good afternoon earlier on today apparently a woman rang the
BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way.
Well of you are watching don't worry, there isn't. But having said
that actually the weather will become very windy but most of
the strong winds incidentally will be down over Spain and across
France as well but there is a vicious looking area of low pressure
on our doorstep nevertheless, around the Brittany area and
that is going to head across the southeastern corner of the
country bringing if nothing else a lot of rain with it. On the
satellite picture you can see that there is of course a lot of
cloud as well as a lot of rain stretching right across Europe and
indeed most areas there are just as unsettled as we are having
some outbreaks of rain. That's the way the rainfall pattern is
looking at the moment, a lot of shading, a lot of rain across
many parts of Europe. Let's zoom in a little bit closer and
have a look at the British scene though, as you can see rain
is now further north left over from last nights weather system.
Now as I run the sequence you can see just how quickly the
rain comes up from France, affects many southern and eastern
areas and then eventually later on tonight clears on out of the
way and leaves us tomorrow in a fairly stiff run of westerly
winds bringing along quite a few showers."

[Spelling and punctuation as in the report's transcript]

Philip Eden


I like that, and it clears up a lot of the stick that Michael Fish got for
this. I like this bit though.

leaves us tomorrow in a fairly stiff run of westerly
winds bringing along quite a few showers."

Well the wind was certainly stiff all right.

He was referring to "stiff" (what a strange adjective to describe winds if you
think about it) winds in the cold air whereas the winds were decidedly more
"stiff" in the warm sector.

Martin

"Gianna Stefani" wrote in message
...
"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Have your ever thought, Gianna, that Mike Fish's own
version might be the mythical one?

I confess that I had not thought that Philip, perhaps because of my own
memory (I was watching that report) which may or may not be generally
accurate.
In either case, my point is that IMVHO he remains correct and with no 'egg
on face' ... regardless of where the alleged lady may have been ... he
definitely said there was no hurricane on the way, and there was no
hurricane. I would be interested to know if there has *ever* been a
hurricane, in the UK, inland, and I suspect you are the man to tell me (:

No tropical cyclone (hurricane or storm) has ever been
reported to have reached north-west Europe
while retaining its tropical characteristics (i.e. warm core)
although "Lili" in 1996 got surprisingly close before it became
extra-tropical, likewise one (I've forgotten its name) in the Bay
of Biscay one October in the early-80s (1981 perhaps?), and
arguably also "Betsy" and "Debbie" in September 1961 which
battered Ireland and western Scotland.

However, we should always bear in mind that we use words
which have specific meanings in the meteorological community
(i.e. jargon, like it or not), but the same words may also be used
much more loosely in everyday English. "Hurricane" is one of these.
Some meteorologists will, without a trace of irony, accuse the
wider population of simply being wrong. I will always remember
the look of fright followed by utter perplexity on Sir John
Houghton's face (the then DG) at a press conference after the
event when his proclamation that "it wasn't a hurricane" was
followed by loud and prolonged laughter. Someone should
have given him a dictionary.

The OED, after giving us the familiar meaning, goes on to
say: "... hence, any storm or tempest in which the wind blows
with terrific violence." The citations which follow show that this
second meaning was in general use by the 1620s, some sixty
years even before the present spelling of the word was in place ...
and I suspect just a little before meteorologists came up with
their classification of tropical storms or Admiral Beaufort
with his scale of wind force.

Philip Eden

"Ian Currie" wrote in message
...

In 1987 as now it was almost impossible to get a details of any sort
through
that would actually be read out before a broadcast.

Admittedly it doesn't happen very often but reports do get phoned through
and on occasion get passed to the BBC and then relayed on the national
broadcasts. I'm sure the odd report on here has taken that route.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Ian Currie" wrote in message
...

In 1987 as now it was almost impossible to get a details of any sort
through
that would actually be read out before a broadcast.

Admittedly it doesn't happen very often but reports do get phoned
through
and on occasion get passed to the BBC and then relayed on the national
broadcasts. I'm sure the odd report on here has taken that route.

.... Indeed Jon, as has been discussed before, unlike in 1987, we now
have this ng, which is read by many on the inside .. even if not openly
acknowledged: this is why it is important to keep the observations going
in 'interesting' weather ... *you* may become famous!

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

No tropical cyclone (hurricane or storm) has ever been
reported to have reached north-west Europe
while retaining its tropical characteristics (i.e. warm core)
although "Lili" in 1996 got surprisingly close before it became
extra-tropical, likewise one (I've forgotten its name) in the Bay
of Biscay one October in the early-80s (1981 perhaps?), and
arguably also "Betsy" and "Debbie" in September 1961 which
battered Ireland and western Scotland.

However, we should always bear in mind that we use words
which have specific meanings in the meteorological community
(i.e. jargon, like it or not), but the same words may also be used
much more loosely in everyday English. "Hurricane" is one of these.
Some meteorologists will, without a trace of irony, accuse the
wider population of simply being wrong. I will always remember
the look of fright followed by utter perplexity on Sir John
Houghton's face (the then DG) at a press conference after the
event when his proclamation that "it wasn't a hurricane" was
followed by loud and prolonged laughter. Someone should
have given him a dictionary.

The OED, after giving us the familiar meaning, goes on to
say: "... hence, any storm or tempest in which the wind blows
with terrific violence." The citations which follow show that this
second meaning was in general use by the 1620s, some sixty
years even before the present spelling of the word was in place ...
and I suspect just a little before meteorologists came up with
their classification of tropical storms or Admiral Beaufort
with his scale of wind force.


Many thanks for that Philip ... much appreciated.
Neil Young made good use of the term also ... not sure that Beaufort would
have liked it though (;

Gianna

On Fri, 26 Nov 2004 13:48:22 -0000, "Philip Eden"
philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:

The OED, after giving us the familiar meaning, goes on to
say: "... hence, any storm or tempest in which the wind blows
with terrific violence." The citations which follow show that this
second meaning was in general use by the 1620s, some sixty
years even before the present spelling of the word was in place ...
and I suspect just a little before meteorologists came up with
their classification of tropical storms or Admiral Beaufort
with his scale of wind force.

Thank goodness someone "in the know", like you, is adding reason to
the debate. I'd add the following:

Defending what was plainly an incorrect or at best misleading forecast
*to the general public* by quoting technicalities (the meteorological
definition of a hurricane) simply won't wash. A Met Office forecasting
error occurred and Michael Fish was their mouthpiece, as far as the
general public was concerned. A high profile weather presenter like
Michael would inevitably have to take some flak along with the Met
Office.

Bad luck made it worse for Michael, of course. If the references to a
Western Atlantic hurricane had occurred on any other day of the year,
they would have been forgotten about. But of all days, it had to be
*this* day. It matters not whether Michael failed to forecast
hurricane force gusts, hurricane force mean wind speeds or the real
thing; as soon as the Great Storm occurred, Michael was in the mire -
because plainly, *something* of hurricane force did occur. Obviously,
the Met Office were in the mire, too - and in official circles, far
deeper than Michael, I suspect.

As for the technical defence of "it wasn't tropical", that's clearly
ludicrous because the references occurred in a broadcast to the
general public and the technical definition wasn't explained.
Hurricane force gusts occurred widely and mean wind speeds reached
hurricane force in a few places on the mainland. Hurricane strength is
defined in the US by the highest "sustained" (1 minute mean) wind
speed and as it came onshore, our Storm certainly met the definition
of a Category 1 Hurricane - in terms of wind speeds. The public and
press couldn't care two hoots whether or not it had tropical
characteristics as that doesn't much affect the risk of damage, injury
and death. Everyone knows that "hurricane" is worse than "storm", we
had something worse than a "storm" and it wasn't forecast.

Michael and the Met Office were in the mire from the moment he said
"no hurricane", or words to that effect, without adding "but there
will be hurricane force winds tonight". He should put up his hands,
admit "it was a fair cop, Guv" and stop trying to defend it. Having
said all that, I am a Michael Fish fan.

--
Dave