Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0604z, 27/11/04.

The JMA, GEM and DWD show signs of a northerly spell forming as the high
near the UK retrogresses. The MetO run (as with the previous view days)
instead favours a more westerly outlook, with lows moving NE'wards then
eastwards around the high. The GFS is incomplete this morning, although it
shows high pressure centred close to the UK from days 5 to 10 and beyond.
Before the high moves in, it's likely there'll be a brief easterly for
southern England at least with low pressure to the south - it won't be a
cold easterly though. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under a col, with light winds for all. Winds remain light at
T+144 as a ridge moves over the UK, followed by westerlies for much of the
UK at T+168 as the ridge sinks southwards over Wales.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
A ridge covers the UK, bringing moderate westerlies to northern Scotland.
Elsewhere, winds are much lighter and vary from westerlies over southern
Scotland to ENE'lies over southern England. The risge moves southwards at
T+144, allowing moderate to strong westerlies to cover the UK.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
There are problems with data on both WeatherOnline and Wetterzentrale with
today's 00z run, with many charts unavailable.
The T+126 chart shows high pressure to the north of the UK with NE'lies and
ENE'lies as a result. By T+180 the high builds and sinks ESE'wards to bring
ENE'lies over England, Northen Ireland and Wales. Scotland lies under a
ridge, with light and variable winds.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a trough over Scandinavia and low pressure over
southern France. Winds are northerlies for western and northern parts of the
UK with easterlies over much of England. A ridge topples SE'wards over the
UK at T+144 to bring westerlies and northerlies, followed by NW'lies at
T+168 as a new ridge builds to the west. Day 8 sees the ridge move over
England and Wales, leaving the UK under westerlies and northerlies. High
pressure sinks SE'wards from Iceland on day 9, leading to NNE'lies for all.
NNE'lies and northerlies affect much of the UK on day 10 as the high moves
SSE'wards and builds.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...270000_120.gif
A ridge lies to the NW of the UK, with low pressure over Biscay. This leads
to easterlies and NE'lies, followed by light winds for all at T+144 as the
ridge topples over the UK. The high retrogresses at T+168, allowing
northerlies to affect northern Scotland with light winds elsewhere.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
ESE'lies and easterlies cover the UK as the result of a low over Biscay. The
low moves over NE Spain at T+144, while high pressure builds to the west of
the UK. Winds are ENE'lies for most areas, although the far north of
Scotland lies under westerlies. A ridge covers the UK on day 7, before
moving southwards to allow strong northerlies to affect all areas on day 8.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
A large high lies to the WSW, bringing northerlies across the UK.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
The Brazilian run shows southerlies and SW'lies across the UK due to a high
over Poland and a trough over Scotland.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
Northerlies cover the UK, with high pressure to the WSW.

MM5: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...6hrn.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

MM5 Snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Darren. That MetO run is a low prob. outlier.

Anything beyond 3 days is unpredictable ATM due to great uncertainties in the
strong SSW jet near Newfoundland. It may be stronger than models know about, if
that is the case expect a more developed north, or notheasterly even, over the
UK next week.

Will.
--

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http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0604z, 27/11/04.

The JMA, GEM and DWD show signs of a northerly spell forming as the high
near the UK retrogresses. The MetO run (as with the previous view days)
instead favours a more westerly outlook, with lows moving NE'wards then
eastwards around the high. The GFS is incomplete this morning, although it
shows high pressure centred close to the UK from days 5 to 10 and beyond.
Before the high moves in, it's likely there'll be a brief easterly for
southern England at least with low pressure to the south - it won't be a
cold easterly though. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under a col, with light winds for all. Winds remain light at
T+144 as a ridge moves over the UK, followed by westerlies for much of the
UK at T+168 as the ridge sinks southwards over Wales.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
A ridge covers the UK, bringing moderate westerlies to northern Scotland.
Elsewhere, winds are much lighter and vary from westerlies over southern
Scotland to ENE'lies over southern England. The risge moves southwards at
T+144, allowing moderate to strong westerlies to cover the UK.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
There are problems with data on both WeatherOnline and Wetterzentrale with
today's 00z run, with many charts unavailable.
The T+126 chart shows high pressure to the north of the UK with NE'lies and
ENE'lies as a result. By T+180 the high builds and sinks ESE'wards to bring
ENE'lies over England, Northen Ireland and Wales. Scotland lies under a
ridge, with light and variable winds.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a trough over Scandinavia and low pressure over
southern France. Winds are northerlies for western and northern parts of the
UK with easterlies over much of England. A ridge topples SE'wards over the
UK at T+144 to bring westerlies and northerlies, followed by NW'lies at
T+168 as a new ridge builds to the west. Day 8 sees the ridge move over
England and Wales, leaving the UK under westerlies and northerlies. High
pressure sinks SE'wards from Iceland on day 9, leading to NNE'lies for all.
NNE'lies and northerlies affect much of the UK on day 10 as the high moves
SSE'wards and builds.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...270000_120.gif
A ridge lies to the NW of the UK, with low pressure over Biscay. This leads
to easterlies and NE'lies, followed by light winds for all at T+144 as the
ridge topples over the UK. The high retrogresses at T+168, allowing
northerlies to affect northern Scotland with light winds elsewhere.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
ESE'lies and easterlies cover the UK as the result of a low over Biscay. The
low moves over NE Spain at T+144, while high pressure builds to the west of
the UK. Winds are ENE'lies for most areas, although the far north of
Scotland lies under westerlies. A ridge covers the UK on day 7, before
moving southwards to allow strong northerlies to affect all areas on day 8.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
A large high lies to the WSW, bringing northerlies across the UK.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
The Brazilian run shows southerlies and SW'lies across the UK due to a high
over Poland and a trough over Scotland.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
Northerlies cover the UK, with high pressure to the WSW.

MM5: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...6hrn.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

MM5 Snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

"Will Hand" wrote in message ...
Darren. That MetO run is a low prob. outlier.
Thanks, Will. I've noticed the MetO run seems to have been really reluctant
of late to fall in line with the other models, as it's been showing a more
mobile (or westerly) type than the others, notably the ECM.

Anything beyond 3 days is unpredictable ATM due to great uncertainties in
the
strong SSW jet near Newfoundland. It may be stronger than models know
about, if
that is the case expect a more developed north, or notheasterly even, over
the
UK next week.
That would explain a heck of a lot. It's quite embarressing to write the
summaries at the moment as the runs really are chopping and changing a lot!
It's times like this that I really wish I had the experience to work out
what was going on, or going to happen... I can pick out trends such as the
liklihood of a brief easterly next week, but I'd do it by noting its
appearance on several runs, rather than the proper way of looking at the
jetstream and the like.
If there's one thing I've learned over the past few years, it's one thing to
look at the charts and present them to the world at large; it's quite
another to acquire the knowledge to spot trends ahead of time as the pros
do!

Ah well, back to the textbooks for me...

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Darren. That MetO run is a low prob. outlier.
Thanks, Will. I've noticed the MetO run seems to have been really
reluctant
of late to fall in line with the other models, as it's been showing a more
mobile (or westerly) type than the others, notably the ECM.

Anything beyond 3 days is unpredictable ATM due to great uncertainties
in
the
strong SSW jet near Newfoundland. It may be stronger than models know
about, if
that is the case expect a more developed north, or notheasterly even,
over
the
UK next week.
That would explain a heck of a lot. It's quite embarressing to write the
summaries at the moment as the runs really are chopping and changing a
lot!
It's times like this that I really wish I had the experience to work out
what was going on, or going to happen... I can pick out trends such as the
liklihood of a brief easterly next week, but I'd do it by noting its
appearance on several runs, rather than the proper way of looking at the
jetstream and the like.
If there's one thing I've learned over the past few years, it's one thing
to
look at the charts and present them to the world at large; it's quite
another to acquire the knowledge to spot trends ahead of time as the pros
do!

Ah well, back to the textbooks for me...





You do a great job Darren:-)

On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 14:47:33 -0000, Darren Prescott wrote in

snip
That would explain a heck of a lot. It's quite embarressing to write the
summaries at the moment as the runs really are chopping and changing a lot!
It's times like this that I really wish I had the experience to work out
what was going on, or going to happen...

Don't think you are alone, Darren. I'm sure there is much head scratching
somewhere in Exeter when successive model runs come up with conflicting
answers. And their audience is in the millions:-)

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 27/11/2004 21:33:57 UTC