Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0600z, 28/11/04.

There's better agreement in the short term between the models at long last.
It looks likely that a ridge or high pressure will affect Scotland towards
the end of next week, with easterlies or ENE'lies further south. Beyond that
things are less certain, although currently the high moving slowly ESE'wards
is the most likely option. Under clear skies night time frosts could become
quite a feature next weekend. As ever, more runs are needded.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge extends from the Azores NE'wards to southern Scandinavia, bringing
light winds to Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are ENE'lies,
with low pressure west of Portugal. High pressure builds over Denmark at
T+144 to bring ESE'lies and southerlies for much of the UK, followed by more
of the same at T+168 as the high moves over Poland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Easterlies cover much of the UK, with high pressure over the North Sea. A
ridge extends across Scotland, bringing light winds there. The high builds
and drifts ESE'wards at T+144, with SW'lies for Scotland and ESE'lies
elsewhere.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Unavailable at the time of writing.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows ENE'lies across the UK, with low pressure over Biscay
and high pressure to the north. The high builds over Scandinavia at T+144,
allowing ENE'lies and NE'lies to affect the UK. By T+168 the winds become
easterlies and SE'lies as a low moves over Biscay.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...270000_120.gif
The UK lies under high pressure, with light westerlies for northernmost
areas and light easterlies across England and Wales. The high persists at
T+144 and T+168, with little overall change.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
ENE'lies are affecting much of the UK as the result of a ridge over
Scotland. The ridge builds strongly at T+144 to become a high centred over
Scotland. To the south, winds are still ENE'lies and there's little change
at T+168. The high retrogresses at T+192 to allow a mixture of northerlies,
NW'lies and ENE'lies to affect the UK.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
As with several of the other runs, a ridge covers Scotland, bringing
easterlies and NE'lies for the UK.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
The Brazilian run shows a high to the NW bringing ENE'lies and NE'lies
across the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A deep low lies to the south of the UK, with high pressure extending from
the Azores and NE'wards to Scandinavia. As a result the UK lies under
ENE'lies and NE'lies.

MM5: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...6hrn.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

MM5 Snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
Unavailable today.

There's better agreement in the short term between the models at long
last.

I guess the only reason why there is an agreement is because GFS charts are
blank! I bet that when (if) they update, it will predict something
completely different.

Brendan

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Unavailable at the time of writing.


Charts have now updated.
T+138 shows a weak low centred over Land's end and a High over Scandinavia.

Looks like mild South-easterlies will result.
I say "mild" as the air-flow originates from the south.

Brendan