"Phil Layton" wrote in message


MetO going for wetter than average period ahead..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ook/index.html

[The dry spell looks set to come to an end with wetter than average
weather expected to dominate.

Northern parts will have extensive rain during the first week, with the
southeast remaining drier than average.

It will then become more unsettled everywhere for the rest of the month,
with the southwest being particularly wet.

However, with near average sunshine expected in most places, much of the
rain is likely to be showery in nature.

The south looks to be more cloudy during the second half of the period.

Apart from a cold start in the far north, temperatures should be near or
slightly above the seasonal average, though falling away a little during
the final two weeks.]

February fills the ditches and March licks them dry in a good year. So
if the above comes true you won't be needing me to prophesy doom.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

--
Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/weather.html
Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Gary, I posted some statistics a few days ago which show that,
although very dry, it has certainly not been unprecedentedly so.
You can see how the high pressure has dominated our part
of the world during the winter season at
http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/05Q1.htm
and also by following the monthly links.

Here are those stats again:

A quick calculation indicates that, for England and Wales,
the rainfall for the winter quarter has a return period of about
10 years, and for Southeast England a return period of
about 16 years.

The Nov-Feb rainfall has a return period of ~25 years.



It's certainly been very dry down here in the far SW.

Well over half of our annual rainfall normally falls in the 5 months
Nov-March.

The normal (1971-2000) rainfall for this period is 634.1mm.
So far (with little sight of appreciable rainfall in the near future) the
total is 301.5mm or just 47.5% of the Nov-March norm.


Graham

Penzance

--
Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/weather.html
Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Gary, I posted some statistics a few days ago which show that,
although very dry, it has certainly not been unprecedentedly so.
You can see how the high pressure has dominated our part
of the world during the winter season at
http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/05Q1.htm
and also by following the monthly links.

Here are those stats again:

A quick calculation indicates that, for England and Wales,
the rainfall for the winter quarter has a return period of about
10 years, and for Southeast England a return period of
about 16 years.

The Nov-Feb rainfall has a return period of ~25 years.



It's certainly been very dry down here in the far SW.

Well over half of our annual rainfall normally falls in the 5 months
Nov-March.

The normal (1971-2000) rainfall for this period is 634.1mm.
So far (with little sight of appreciable rainfall in the near future) the
total is 301.5mm or just 47.5% of the Nov-March norm.


Graham

Penzance

--
Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/weather.html
Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Gary, I posted some statistics a few days ago which show that,
although very dry, it has certainly not been unprecedentedly so.
You can see how the high pressure has dominated our part
of the world during the winter season at
http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/05Q1.htm
and also by following the monthly links.

Here are those stats again:

A quick calculation indicates that, for England and Wales,
the rainfall for the winter quarter has a return period of about
10 years, and for Southeast England a return period of
about 16 years.

The Nov-Feb rainfall has a return period of ~25 years.



It's certainly been very dry down here in the far SW.

Well over half of our annual rainfall normally falls in the 5 months
Nov-March.

The normal (1971-2000) rainfall for this period is 634.1mm.
So far (with little sight of appreciable rainfall in the near future) the
total is 301.5mm or just 47.5% of the Nov-March norm.


Graham

Penzance

--
Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/weather.html
Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...


Gary, I posted some statistics a few days ago which show that,
although very dry, it has certainly not been unprecedentedly so.
You can see how the high pressure has dominated our part
of the world during the winter season at
http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/05Q1.htm
and also by following the monthly links.

Here are those stats again:

A quick calculation indicates that, for England and Wales,
the rainfall for the winter quarter has a return period of about
10 years, and for Southeast England a return period of
about 16 years.

The Nov-Feb rainfall has a return period of ~25 years.



It's certainly been very dry down here in the far SW.

Well over half of our annual rainfall normally falls in the 5 months
Nov-March.

The normal (1971-2000) rainfall for this period is 634.1mm.
So far (with little sight of appreciable rainfall in the near future) the
total is 301.5mm or just 47.5% of the Nov-March norm.


Graham

Penzance

"Nick G" wrote:

My recording of 88.0 mm for the Dec-Feb period puts Worcester on par with
the winters in the early 1930's for dryness. And yet I would have thought
that Worcester's rainfall would generally be slightly higher than the SE
of England, so this makes 88.0 mm even more unusual.

Actually Worcester is drier than much of the SE, especially those
areas south of the Thames where southwesterlies dump lots of rain.
Also, you can't really compare a single site with a regional
average ... you would expect a single site to have wider
extremes than an area.

I checked out the Pershore figures for some of those dry
winters (i.e. DJF):
2004-05 91mm
1991-92 102mm
1975-76 74mm
1963-64 37mm
1962-63 95mm

and Worcester/Perdiswell:
1933-34 79mm
1931-32 79mm

Philip Eden

"Nick G" wrote:

My recording of 88.0 mm for the Dec-Feb period puts Worcester on par with
the winters in the early 1930's for dryness. And yet I would have thought
that Worcester's rainfall would generally be slightly higher than the SE
of England, so this makes 88.0 mm even more unusual.

Actually Worcester is drier than much of the SE, especially those
areas south of the Thames where southwesterlies dump lots of rain.
Also, you can't really compare a single site with a regional
average ... you would expect a single site to have wider
extremes than an area.

I checked out the Pershore figures for some of those dry
winters (i.e. DJF):
2004-05 91mm
1991-92 102mm
1975-76 74mm
1963-64 37mm
1962-63 95mm

and Worcester/Perdiswell:
1933-34 79mm
1931-32 79mm

Philip Eden

"Nick G" wrote:

My recording of 88.0 mm for the Dec-Feb period puts Worcester on par with
the winters in the early 1930's for dryness. And yet I would have thought
that Worcester's rainfall would generally be slightly higher than the SE
of England, so this makes 88.0 mm even more unusual.

Actually Worcester is drier than much of the SE, especially those
areas south of the Thames where southwesterlies dump lots of rain.
Also, you can't really compare a single site with a regional
average ... you would expect a single site to have wider
extremes than an area.

I checked out the Pershore figures for some of those dry
winters (i.e. DJF):
2004-05 91mm
1991-92 102mm
1975-76 74mm
1963-64 37mm
1962-63 95mm

and Worcester/Perdiswell:
1933-34 79mm
1931-32 79mm

Philip Eden

"Nick G" wrote:

My recording of 88.0 mm for the Dec-Feb period puts Worcester on par with
the winters in the early 1930's for dryness. And yet I would have thought
that Worcester's rainfall would generally be slightly higher than the SE
of England, so this makes 88.0 mm even more unusual.

Actually Worcester is drier than much of the SE, especially those
areas south of the Thames where southwesterlies dump lots of rain.
Also, you can't really compare a single site with a regional
average ... you would expect a single site to have wider
extremes than an area.

I checked out the Pershore figures for some of those dry
winters (i.e. DJF):
2004-05 91mm
1991-92 102mm
1975-76 74mm
1963-64 37mm
1962-63 95mm

and Worcester/Perdiswell:
1933-34 79mm
1931-32 79mm

Philip Eden

"Graham Easterling" wrote:
"Philip Eden" wrote:

A quick calculation indicates that, for England and Wales,
the rainfall for the winter quarter has a return period of about
10 years, and for Southeast England a return period of
about 16 years.

The Nov-Feb rainfall has a return period of ~25 years.

It's certainly been very dry down here in the far SW. Well over half of
our annual rainfall normally falls in the 5 months Nov-March.
The normal (1971-2000) rainfall for this period is 634.1mm.
So far (with little sight of appreciable rainfall in the near future) the
total is 301.5mm or just 47.5% of the Nov-March norm.

Nov 1991-March 1992 produced a total of 316mm at
the old Penzance site ... you'll do well to beat that :-)

Philip Eden