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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0604z,
6/12/04. The runs are mixed today. Some show a trough crossing the UK at the end of the week, whereas others show a ridge instead. The general pattern remains a zonal one, albeit displaced further north than usual. Several of the runs show the SE of England in particular affected by the European High, so conditions may be more settled there. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif A trough covers SE England, with westerlies and NW'lies across the UK as a result. The trough is replaced by a ridge at T+144 and this brings southerlies and WSW'lies. The winds become southerlies and SW'lies at T+168 as the ridge moves slowly eastwards. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html A large high covers much of eastern Europe, with a ridge over England and Wales leading to westerlies for most places. The ridge moves eastwards at T+144, allowing southerlies and SSW'lies to affect the UK. GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif The UK lies under southerlies and SW'lies with a slack trough to the SW. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over northern Scotland to +6C over Cornwall. A trough moves eastwards towards the UK at T+144 to bring SW'lies for all, followed by SSW'lies and southerlies at T+168 as the trough becomes a low to the west of Iberia. A ridge moves over England and Wales on day 8 with WSW'lies elsewhere, followed by WSW@lies for all on day 9. Day 10 sees a trough cross the UK with strong to gale force westerlies and WNW'lies. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run also shows southerlies and SW'lies, this time due to a weak ridge over SE England. 850hPa temperatures range from -2C over northern Scotland to +5C over SE England. The winds become SW'lies for all at T+144 with a trough to the NW of the UK. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...040000_120.gif The German run paints a cloudy picture for the UK, with WSW'lies associated with a high to the SSW covering the UK. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html A trough covers England and Wales, with SW'lies in advance and NW'lies following on behind. 850hPa temperatures range from -5C over Northern Ireland to +4C over SE England. A high builds over the UK at T+144 to bring SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland; elsewhere winds are light and variable. NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif NOGAPS shows westerlies for all and a weak trough over England. A small pool of sub 528dam air covers Northern Ireland. GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml Ireland lies under a trough, with SSW'lies across much of the UK as a result. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run shows a zonal westerly flow across the UK, with a series of lows to the NW, north and NE; high pressure lies to the WSW and ESE. |
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