For the 5th consecutive year, I present you with my Christmas weather
forecast.
Having used various techniques in previous years, including MRF
extrapolation, Tolkienesque fantasy, nursery rhyme plagiarism and artistic
superimposition, all I should add, with a varying degrees of success. -
This year I've decided to employ a scientific approach. Namely the fluffy
dice forecast.

Armed with no more than a couple of pink fluffy dice (an unwrapped xmas gift
for a female co-worker and her new car). I will apply a simple probability
ratio to three rolls of the dice. Each throw representing conditions on the
24th, 25th and 26th December respectively.
Here is what each possible score shall equate too;

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2 - An extremely mild day throughout the UK, no doubt rather grey to boot in
the west with a long and strong SSW fetch. Possibly fohn assisted record
maximums in appropriate locations.
3 - A very mild day, maximum temps over the UK in the range 12ºC to 15ºC.
4 - A mild day, probably a good SW breeze over most of the country with rain
in places. Max temps in double figures.
5- A fairly mild day, rain in places. Max temps from 8ºC in the North to
11ºC in the south west.
6- Near average, a touch of ground frost in sheltered glens.
7 - Average. Probably rain moving in from the west, max temps from 5ºC in
the far North to 9ºC in the south.
8 - Near average. An air frost in some eastern and central areas, showers in
the north and west, wintry over 3000ft.
9 - A fairly cold day. Wintry precip. over high ground (1500ft+). Frosts
early and late in sheltered inland areas.
10 - A cold day. Snow showers at low levels in the far north and north east,
Sleety showers near many east facing coasts further south. Maximums
generally 2ºC to 4C and no higher than 7ºC except in the far South West.
11- A very cold day. Strong easterly or north easterly winds. Snow for many
eastern and central areas, widespread blizzards in the far North. A very
cold night for all to follow.
12 - An exceptionally cold day, widespread sub zero temperatures. -20ºC
minimums under an inversion in the north. Frequent snow showers south of the
M4, easterly gale in the channel.
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Not being a superstitious person, I didn't feel the need to place the fluffy
dice in the freezer for an hour before my experiment. However, I did place
them in the refrigerator for 15 min's... :P

The first roll (24th December) scored .... 7
The second roll (xmas day) scored... 7
The 3rd roll (boxing day) scored...11.

Therefore, no one will see a white Christmas this year in the UK, with the
possible exception of a few hill walkers atop of the Cairngorms!

Temperatures will be average for the time of year on xmas eve and xmas day,
with slight frosts in the sheltered northern areas early morning. Maximums
ranging from 6ºC in the far north to 9ºC in central and southern areas on
xmas eve, and down a degree or so from these values on xmas day.
With a high pressure cell moving into the Greenland/ Iceland area, a gentle
northerly is likely.
Later on xmas day the flow will strengthen in the northern Isles and snow
showers will readily fall here by dawn behind a cold front. On Boxing day
the high pressure is firmly established over Greenland and Iceland and the
wind veers from a Northerly to a strong North easterly in the wake of the
vigorous cold front trundling south. Helped additionally by a stationary low
in Central Europe. Cold polar continental air from Scandinavia will flood
most of the country by late evening, with snow very likely in the North and
east after sunset, quickly affecting all eastern coastal areas overnight.
Rogue snow showers are possible in central areas - with a substantial wind
chill factor.

Outlook - Liable to be cold and snowy for a few days in a NNE flow.

In the unlikely event this forecast should prove accurate, please feel free
to adopt the method and claim it as your own. I shan't be using it again,
even if it happens to be perfect - and even if I get some fluffy dice of my
own! It should be noted that at least it has some scientific basis, unlike
some other Christmas forecasts that are banded around :P

Far more importantly, with or without the weather you desire, Merry
Christmas when it comes everyone.

Alex.




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Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
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Thankyou Alex,

It's nice to see some detail put in to the longer range forecasts -
something the more experienced members of the group tend to overlook.

Tounge firmly in cheek,

Jeremy

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
For the 5th consecutive year, I present you with my Christmas weather
forecast.
Having used various techniques in previous years, including MRF
extrapolation, Tolkienesque fantasy, nursery rhyme plagiarism and artistic
superimposition, all I should add, with a varying degrees of success. -
This year I've decided to employ a scientific approach. Namely the fluffy
dice forecast.

Armed with no more than a couple of pink fluffy dice (an unwrapped xmas
gift for a female co-worker and her new car). I will apply a simple
probability ratio to three rolls of the dice. Each throw representing
conditions on the 24th, 25th and 26th December respectively.
Here is what each possible score shall equate too;

ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
2 - An extremely mild day throughout the UK, no doubt rather grey to boot
in the west with a long and strong SSW fetch. Possibly fohn assisted
record maximums in appropriate locations.
3 - A very mild day, maximum temps over the UK in the range 12ºC to 15ºC.
4 - A mild day, probably a good SW breeze over most of the country with
rain in places. Max temps in double figures.
5- A fairly mild day, rain in places. Max temps from 8ºC in the North to
11ºC in the south west.
6- Near average, a touch of ground frost in sheltered glens.
7 - Average. Probably rain moving in from the west, max temps from 5ºC in
the far North to 9ºC in the south.
8 - Near average. An air frost in some eastern and central areas, showers
in the north and west, wintry over 3000ft.
9 - A fairly cold day. Wintry precip. over high ground (1500ft+). Frosts
early and late in sheltered inland areas.
10 - A cold day. Snow showers at low levels in the far north and north
east, Sleety showers near many east facing coasts further south. Maximums
generally 2ºC to 4C and no higher than 7ºC except in the far South West.
11- A very cold day. Strong easterly or north easterly winds. Snow for
many eastern and central areas, widespread blizzards in the far North. A
very cold night for all to follow.
12 - An exceptionally cold day, widespread sub zero temperatures. -20ºC
minimums under an inversion in the north. Frequent snow showers south of
the M4, easterly gale in the channel.
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Not being a superstitious person, I didn't feel the need to place the
fluffy dice in the freezer for an hour before my experiment. However, I
did place them in the refrigerator for 15 min's... :P

The first roll (24th December) scored .... 7
The second roll (xmas day) scored... 7
The 3rd roll (boxing day) scored...11.

Therefore, no one will see a white Christmas this year in the UK, with the
possible exception of a few hill walkers atop of the Cairngorms!

Temperatures will be average for the time of year on xmas eve and xmas
day, with slight frosts in the sheltered northern areas early morning.
Maximums ranging from 6ºC in the far north to 9ºC in central and southern
areas on xmas eve, and down a degree or so from these values on xmas day.
With a high pressure cell moving into the Greenland/ Iceland area, a
gentle northerly is likely.
Later on xmas day the flow will strengthen in the northern Isles and snow
showers will readily fall here by dawn behind a cold front. On Boxing day
the high pressure is firmly established over Greenland and Iceland and the
wind veers from a Northerly to a strong North easterly in the wake of the
vigorous cold front trundling south. Helped additionally by a stationary
low in Central Europe. Cold polar continental air from Scandinavia will
flood most of the country by late evening, with snow very likely in the
North and east after sunset, quickly affecting all eastern coastal areas
overnight. Rogue snow showers are possible in central areas - with a
substantial wind chill factor.

Outlook - Liable to be cold and snowy for a few days in a NNE flow.

In the unlikely event this forecast should prove accurate, please feel
free to adopt the method and claim it as your own. I shan't be using it
again, even if it happens to be perfect - and even if I get some fluffy
dice of my own! It should be noted that at least it has some scientific
basis, unlike some other Christmas forecasts that are banded around :P

Far more importantly, with or without the weather you desire, Merry
Christmas when it comes everyone.

Alex.




ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well done Alex - methodology explained ! Some proper science even if the method
seems a tad dubious :-)

Brian Gaze take note :-)

Merry Yuletide to you too,

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...

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