================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Latest ECMWF DT 00Z 14/12 and 12Z GFS both seem to want to put us into a rather
cold north to northwesterly type next week. Depth of cold may be overdone on GFS
but it certainly means temps around normal or even a bit below. This means snow
falling over high ground exposed to the west and north, say above 300m in the
south of England and 200m in Scotland. Potential too for some deep lows to swing
SE, ECM hints at this, bringing locally stormy conditions in tight circulations
around lows. All in all a fascinating 2 weeks ahead I'd say now we are finally
getting rid of that boring Eurotrash high.

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Latest ECMWF DT 00Z 14/12 and 12Z GFS both seem to want to put us
into a rather
cold north to northwesterly type next week. Depth of cold may be
overdone on GFS
but it certainly means temps around normal or even a bit below. This
means snow
falling over high ground exposed to the west and north, say above 300m
in the
south of England and 200m in Scotland. Potential too for some deep
lows to swing
SE, ECM hints at this, bringing locally stormy conditions in tight
circulations
around lows. All in all a fascinating 2 weeks ahead I'd say now we are
finally
getting rid of that boring Eurotrash high.

Will.

Thanks for that, Will. I thought the same too!!
btw, I'm pleased to see your indoor temp has topped 16C. If ours falls
below 21C anywhere in the house swmbo and siblings become quite
belligerent (;0)

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk
(All times GMT)





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I hope so Will. My long range forecast for the whole of 2004 issued at the
end of 2003 goes for a white Christmas. My reasoning was that I expected
high pressure to be dominant to the west or south west during the late
autumn and early winter aided by cooler than average sea temperatures to the
west of Britain and this could lead to bursts of cold weather after a mild
spell mid month. This indeed looks like happening. The timing may give some
wintry precipitation over the Festive period though the odds are stacked
somewhat against the punter.

For instance in 1993 I am sure a few snow flakes fell during the early hours
of the 25th in London but how assiduous were any of the observers at the
London Weather Centre. Snow fell here in Coulsdon with a thin veneer and
indeed was most noticeable in valleys where the ground reached the lowest
temperatures early in the night preserving the flakes as they fell onto the
frozen ground . A front was moving east and petering out after a sharp frost
early in the night but snow did fall in many places.
Snow[or rather sleet] also fell on the 25th Dec 2001 here in Coulsdon at the
tail end of a cold front and was observed again at a number of places. The
LWC observed hail of all things but I am not going to get into this debate.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.frostedearth.com





"Ken Cook" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Latest ECMWF DT 00Z 14/12 and 12Z GFS both seem to want to put us
into a rather
cold north to northwesterly type next week. Depth of cold may be
overdone on GFS
but it certainly means temps around normal or even a bit below. This
means snow
falling over high ground exposed to the west and north, say above 300m
in the
south of England and 200m in Scotland. Potential too for some deep
lows to swing
SE, ECM hints at this, bringing locally stormy conditions in tight
circulations
around lows. All in all a fascinating 2 weeks ahead I'd say now we are
finally
getting rid of that boring Eurotrash high.

Will.

Thanks for that, Will. I thought the same too!!
btw, I'm pleased to see your indoor temp has topped 16C. If ours falls
below 21C anywhere in the house swmbo and siblings become quite
belligerent (;0)

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk
(All times GMT)





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"Ian Currie" wrote in message
k...
I hope so Will. My long range forecast for the whole of 2004 issued at the
end of 2003 goes for a white Christmas. My reasoning was that I expected
high pressure to be dominant to the west or south west during the late
autumn and early winter aided by cooler than average sea temperatures to
the
west of Britain and this could lead to bursts of cold weather after a mild
spell mid month. This indeed looks like happening.

Most of the north Atlantic is warmer than normal. See
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...t.20041208.gif
Any N or NW winds will track across a relatively warm ocean.

Still 12 degrees off much of the Cornish coast.
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PTUK21.TIF

Still, as Will says, at least the weather is going to become less boring
than of late.

Graham

Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.uk.co/weather
Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.uk.co

always looking for the silver linings eh.

majority of the population do NOT live 300 metres or higher above sea
level

let's see it's December, not a flake has fallen over the high ground in
Scotland for

some time, they have less than they should at this time of year.

Are you telling me that people should get excited by the prospects of
higher ground

seeing some wintry precip in
mid to late december? Geeez, who would have expected such a thing !!

Glad the euro-trash high is gone. Will be wet and windy for the
majority though
Agreed with previous comments, still Atlantic influence. High ground
wintry precip
chance only. Winds coming off still warm atlantic

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================
Mr Blue Lightning or whoever you are,

I couldn't care less frankly what you get excited about, I am certainly not
telling you what to get excited about. All I was doing was making a scientific
observation of latest model output based on 32 years professional experience as
a meteorologist so it is not a question of looking for "silver linings" etc.

You would also be wise not to be too critical of cold forecasts as latest charts
certainly give plenty of credence to them ATM.

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"BlueLightning" wrote in message
oups.com...
always looking for the silver linings eh.

majority of the population do NOT live 300 metres or higher above sea
level

let's see it's December, not a flake has fallen over the high ground in
Scotland for

some time, they have less than they should at this time of year.

Are you telling me that people should get excited by the prospects of
higher ground

seeing some wintry precip in
mid to late december? Geeez, who would have expected such a thing !!

Glad the euro-trash high is gone. Will be wet and windy for the
majority though
Agreed with previous comments, still Atlantic influence. High ground
wintry precip
chance only. Winds coming off still warm atlantic

always looking for the silver linings eh.

majority of the population do NOT live 300 metres or higher above sea
level

let's see it's December, not a flake has fallen over the high ground in
Scotland for

some time, they have less than they should at this time of year.

Are you telling me that people should get excited by the prospects of
higher ground

seeing some wintry precip in
mid to late december? Geeez, who would have expected such a thing !!

Glad the euro-trash high is gone. Will be wet and windy for the
majority though
Agreed with previous comments, still Atlantic influence. High ground
wintry precip
chance only. Winds coming off still warm atlantic

by the way the people that try to use the numbers argument make me
laugh
oh several amateur forecasts have said it will be a white christmas so
therefore
the met office must be wrong. Anyone, anywhere can be an amateur
forecaster.
You can ask anyone in the high street whether they feel it will be a
cold or mild
Christmas

people are lining themselves up for disappointment

always looking for the silver linings eh.

majority of the population do NOT live 300 metres or higher above sea
level

let's see it's December, not a flake has fallen over the high ground in
Scotland for some time, they have less than they should at this time of
year.

Are you telling me that people should get excited by the prospects of
higher ground seeing some wintry precip in
mid to late december? Geeez, who would have expected such a thing !!

people are lining themselves up for disappointment

always looking for the silver linings eh.

majority of the population do NOT live 300 metres or higher above sea
level

let's see it's December, not a flake has fallen over the high ground in
Scotland for some time, they have less than they should at this time of
year.

Are you telling me that people should get excited by the prospects of
higher ground seeing some wintry precip in
mid to late december? Geeez, who would have expected such a thing !!

This means snow
falling over high ground exposed to the west and north, say above 300m in the
south of England and 200m in Scotland.

Looks good for my old Dartmoor stamping ground then, I'll have to keep an eye
on the Princetown webcam:-
http://www.devon.gov.uk/index/transp..._princetown_da
rtmoor.htm
and also the Powder Mills (Postbridge) webcam :-
http://www.dartcom.co.uk/index.php?PageID=7