The GFS 12Z model analysis for Friday 270505 is still available at-
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
shows an area of modest CAPE in the south Midlands and the main body of the
plume moving away NE.However, there is also strong CIN in place and drier
air being advected into southern England.Despite reports of highish
dewpoints in England during the morning,the Herstmonceux 12z sounding
suggests these were confined to the surface and there was little moisture
available in depth -
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...712&STNM=03882
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of substantial
surface CAPE.
One wonders about the prospects for strong surface based convection in
'Spanish Plume' situations this summer given the dryness of France and
southern England.........
However,elevated storms can be spectacular as events earlier this month
showed.If yesterday's elevated convection had occured at night cloud top
cooling would have encouraged a repeat performance,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
The GFS 12Z model analysis for Friday 270505 is still available at-
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
shows an area of modest CAPE in the south Midlands and the main body of
the
plume moving away NE.However, there is also strong CIN in place and drier
air being advected into southern England.Despite reports of highish
dewpoints in England during the morning,the Herstmonceux 12z sounding
suggests these were confined to the surface and there was little moisture
available in depth -

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...712&STNM=03882
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of
substantial
surface CAPE.
One wonders about the prospects for strong surface based convection in
'Spanish Plume' situations this summer given the dryness of France and
southern England.........
However,elevated storms can be spectacular as events earlier this month
showed.If yesterday's elevated convection had occured at night cloud top
cooling would have encouraged a repeat performance,

There was a fair bit of mid-level TS activity over the northern North Sea
earlier this morning within the 18C theta-w plume
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_..._000_0850.html
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rsfloc.gif
There was also some earlier sferics over eastern England (John Whitby's
1420Z report from York).

I'm still puzzled as to why ESTOFEX came up with "Next round for initiation
will be a cold front,which arrives in the early evening hours from southwest
and isolated to scattered TSTMs can be expected to develop" - as the major
models (MetO, GFS and ECMWF) all correctly indicated a benign frontal
passage.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" "Waghorn"
There was a fair bit of mid-level TS activity over the northern North Sea
earlier this morning within the 18C theta-w plume
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_..._000_0850.html
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rsfloc.gif
There was also some earlier sferics over eastern England (John Whitby's
1420Z report from York).
Yes,I thought there were some sferics on Long Wave and there was a good
looking anvil to the north of London.Cloud top cooling and outflow in the
jet over the north would help

I'm still puzzled as to why ESTOFEX came up with "Next round for
initiation
will be a cold front,which arrives in the early evening hours from
southwest
and isolated to scattered TSTMs can be expected to develop" - as the major
models (MetO, GFS and ECMWF) all correctly indicated a benign frontal
passage.

Jon.


P'haps he was covering his A**!
The NMM 22Km had a short period of stratiform rain for London ~06Z ,nothing
to report here apart from gusty winds,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

What on earth is ESTOFEX Jon?

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
The GFS 12Z model analysis for Friday 270505 is still available at-
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
shows an area of modest CAPE in the south Midlands and the main body of
the
plume moving away NE.However, there is also strong CIN in place and
drier
air being advected into southern England.Despite reports of highish
dewpoints in England during the morning,the Herstmonceux 12z sounding
suggests these were confined to the surface and there was little
moisture
available in depth -


http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...F%3ASKEWT&YEAR
=2005&MONTH=05&FROM=2712&TO=2712&STNM=03882
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems
to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of
substantial
surface CAPE.
One wonders about the prospects for strong surface based convection in
'Spanish Plume' situations this summer given the dryness of France and
southern England.........
However,elevated storms can be spectacular as events earlier this month
showed.If yesterday's elevated convection had occured at night cloud top
cooling would have encouraged a repeat performance,

There was a fair bit of mid-level TS activity over the northern North Sea
earlier this morning within the 18C theta-w plume
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_..._000_0850.html
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rsfloc.gif
There was also some earlier sferics over eastern England (John Whitby's
1420Z report from York).

I'm still puzzled as to why ESTOFEX came up with "Next round for
initiation
will be a cold front,which arrives in the early evening hours from
southwest
and isolated to scattered TSTMs can be expected to develop" - as the major
models (MetO, GFS and ECMWF) all correctly indicated a benign frontal
passage.

Jon.

"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
What on earth is ESTOFEX Jon?

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

According to the FAQ it's "an initiative of a team of European
meteorologists and meteorology students / trained enthusiasts, who intend to
learn how to forecast severe convective storms in Europe."
http://estofex.met.fu-berlin.de/
Must admit it's a not a site I visit very often.

Jon.

"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
What on earth is ESTOFEX Jon?

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

According to the FAQ it's "an initiative of a team of European
meteorologists and meteorology students / trained enthusiasts, who intend to
learn how to forecast severe convective storms in Europe."
http://estofex.met.fu-berlin.de/
Must admit it's not a site I visit very often.

Jon.

Although the ESTOFEX site is not part of this development, progress at
national/intra-national level towards a Europe-wide Severe Weather
Warning Service are mentioned he-

http://www.metoffice.com/bookshelf/m...un04/emma.html

I believe that work is well advanced towards identifying a single
(national) centre to be *the* centre to coordinate such advice ... the
MO must be in the van as regards *model* support, but I would have
thought that somewhere more 'central' might be chosen. The ESTOFEX idea,
whilst essentially an amateur/enthusiastic professional concept, would
be a good template to base such a system on.

Martin.




"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
What on earth is ESTOFEX Jon?

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

According to the FAQ it's "an initiative of a team of European
meteorologists and meteorology students / trained enthusiasts, who
intend to
learn how to forecast severe convective storms in Europe."
http://estofex.met.fu-berlin.de/
Must admit it's not a site I visit very often.

Jon.

"Bernard Burton" What on earth is ESTOFEX Jon?

Forecasts are available at-

http://estofex.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/outlooks.cgi
Home page-
http://www.estofex.org/
there is a severe weather reporting database-
http://www.phys.uu.nl/~ttu/estofex/eswd/events.cgi
see also -
http://www.tordach.org/

in the long there is an idea to set a european counterpart to NSSL-
http://www.essl.org/



--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

In article ,
Waghorn writes:
snip
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of substantial
surface CAPE.

Shouldn't that be "hopelessly pessimistic" - at least as far as most of
us are concerned? Better perhaps to avoid value judgements and say
"hopelessly over-estimated".
--
John Hall
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
but if he will be content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties." Francis Bacon (1561-1626)

"John Hall" Waghorn writes:
snip
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of
substantial
surface CAPE.

Shouldn't that be "hopelessly pessimistic" - at least as far as most of
us are concerned? Better perhaps to avoid value judgements and say
"hopelessly over-estimated".
--
John Hall
Yes,
no value judgement intended.
But 'optimistic' wld certanly be wrong word if you'd suffered,large hail,a
tornado etc.
Point taken,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply