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Old June 2nd 05, 06:55 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (2/06/05)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0553z,
2/06/05.

The runs show increasingly settled conditions for much of the UK as the
Azores High extends its influence across our isles. As ever there are
considerable differences between the runs regarding positioning, which will
make the difference between cooler northerlies and hot SE'lies. As ever,
more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure covers much of England, with high pressure to the NW. This
leads to NE'lies across most of the UK, followed by northerlies and NE'lies
at T+144 as high pressure builds over Scotland. The high sinks south and
builds over Ireland at T+168, resulting in northerlies for most.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
High pressure covers the UK, with light winds for all.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Scotland lies under a trough, resulting in southerlies and westerlies, while
Northern Ireland also lies under westerlies. NW'lies cover much of the UK,
with a trough over the Netherlands. 850hPa temperatures vary from +2C over
northern Scotland to +9C over Cornwall. High pressure builds strongly across
the UK at T+144, bringing light winds for all areas except northern
Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. The high builds to the east at T+144,
leading to easterlies for southern England, with southerlies and westerlies
elsewhere. The high declines over the North Sea on day 8, bringing
southerlies and SE'lies, followed by variable winds for many on day 9 as a
col covers the UK. Day 10 sees high pressure over Scotland, with easterlies
elsewhere.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The London ensembles show 850hPa temperatures falling to below normal
between the 4th and 6th June, thereafter there's a split. The majority of
runs bring much warmer conditions in, with a sizable minority bringing
colder conditions. It's all related to the positioning of the high near the
UK...

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows light winds for most with high pressure centred over
Scotland. The high sinks southwards at T+144, allowing a weak trough to
bring westerlies and SW'lies for much of the UK.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...020000_120.gif
A trough covers the UK, bringing westerlies and southerlies. By T+144 it
moves away to the NNE, leaving the UK under an area of high pressure.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Southerlies cover western areas of the UK with a trough to the west of
Ireland. Elsewhere winds are variable due to a ridge. Pressure rises from
the SW at T+144, leading to westerlies for all.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The UK lies under a ridge, with northerlies and NW'lies. The ridge builds
over England and Wales at T+144, with SW'lies elsewhere.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run places a high over Ireland, with northerlies elsewhere.



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