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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0553z,
2/06/05. The runs show increasingly settled conditions for much of the UK as the Azores High extends its influence across our isles. As ever there are considerable differences between the runs regarding positioning, which will make the difference between cooler northerlies and hot SE'lies. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif Low pressure covers much of England, with high pressure to the NW. This leads to NE'lies across most of the UK, followed by northerlies and NE'lies at T+144 as high pressure builds over Scotland. The high sinks south and builds over Ireland at T+168, resulting in northerlies for most. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html High pressure covers the UK, with light winds for all. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm Scotland lies under a trough, resulting in southerlies and westerlies, while Northern Ireland also lies under westerlies. NW'lies cover much of the UK, with a trough over the Netherlands. 850hPa temperatures vary from +2C over northern Scotland to +9C over Cornwall. High pressure builds strongly across the UK at T+144, bringing light winds for all areas except northern Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. The high builds to the east at T+144, leading to easterlies for southern England, with southerlies and westerlies elsewhere. The high declines over the North Sea on day 8, bringing southerlies and SE'lies, followed by variable winds for many on day 9 as a col covers the UK. Day 10 sees high pressure over Scotland, with easterlies elsewhere. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The London ensembles show 850hPa temperatures falling to below normal between the 4th and 6th June, thereafter there's a split. The majority of runs bring much warmer conditions in, with a sizable minority bringing colder conditions. It's all related to the positioning of the high near the UK... GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows light winds for most with high pressure centred over Scotland. The high sinks southwards at T+144, allowing a weak trough to bring westerlies and SW'lies for much of the UK. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...020000_120.gif A trough covers the UK, bringing westerlies and southerlies. By T+144 it moves away to the NNE, leaving the UK under an area of high pressure. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html Southerlies cover western areas of the UK with a trough to the west of Ireland. Elsewhere winds are variable due to a ridge. Pressure rises from the SW at T+144, leading to westerlies for all. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif The UK lies under a ridge, with northerlies and NW'lies. The ridge builds over England and Wales at T+144, with SW'lies elsewhere. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run places a high over Ireland, with northerlies elsewhere. |
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