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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Wednesday. Issued
0608z, 4/06/05. The runs continue to show a largely settled outlook for much of the UK, with the GFS still showing a risk of ground frost next week as skies clear and winds fall light. Longer term there are signs of a northerly setting in as the high moves westwards, but as ever more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure is centred over the UK, bringing light winds for all areas except Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. The high shifts westwards at T+144, with a ridge over England and Wales. Winds are light there, with NW'lies elsewhere. By T+168 a low deepens east of Shetland, with northerlies across the UK. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html High pressure is centred over SW England, bringing westerlies for most. The high retrogresses at T+144 to allow northerlies to affect all areas. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm High pressure covers the UK with light winds. 850hPa temperatures vary from +2C over NW Scotland to +9C over Cornwall. High pressure persists at T+144 and for most at T+168, although by then a low brings SW'lies for Scotland. Day 8 sees pressure rise to the wets, with northerlies for all (and with 850hPa temperatures of -6C across northern Scotland). The high moves slowly eastwards at T+216, maintaining the northerlies, followed by NW'lies and westerlies at T+240 as the high sinks SE'wards over the UK. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The ensembles show 850hPa temperatures mostly at or below average from today to the 12th, with the operational run being a warm outlier by the 9th. It's largely dry apart from a notable peak of precipitation on the 6th. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run places high pressure over southern England, witha ridge elsewhere bringing light westerlies and SW'lies. The high declines over southern England at T+144, with light winds for all. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...030000_120.gif The German run shows light winds for all with high pressure over the UK. The high moves westwards at T+144, allowing a northerly to set in. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html High pressure is centred over the UK at T+120 and T+144, with light winds as a result on both days. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NE'lies cover England and Wales, with high pressure elsewhere bringing light winds. There's little change at T+144. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run shows high pressure for the UK, with westerlies across Scotland. |
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