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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Saturday. Issued
0552z, 7/06/05. The runs continue to show a settled outlook, although they differ regarding the position of the high. If as some of the runs suggest the high remains to the NW, it's likely to remain on the cool side; conversely if the high sinks SE'wards over the UK temperatures would be a fair bit warmer. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure covers the UK, with light winds for all. The high moves northwards at T+144, allowing weak easterlies to affect the UK. The winds become SE'lies and easterlies at T+168 as a trough moves northwards over the Celtic Sea. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK at both T+120 and T+144, with high pressure near Iceland. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm The UK lies under NE'lies, with high pressure near Iceland. 850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over northern Scotland to +6C over southern England. The winds become northerlies and easterlies at T+144 as the high remains in situ, followed by more of the same at T+168. Unusually the UK lthen lies under a col from days 8 to 10, with light winds for all and some cold air covering Scotland. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The London ensembles show 850hpa temperatures at or above average until Monday, followed by a few days below average. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run places high pressure to the NW, with a ridge over much of the UK. Winds are light northerlies across Scotland and variable elsewhere. The ridge persists at T+144, this time with light northerlies over England. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...060000_120.gif The German run shows a high over the UK with light winds. There's little change at T+144. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html Northerlies cover the UK due to a high to the west. The high declines at T+144, leaving light northerlies and NW'lies over the UK. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows a high near Iceland at T+120 and T+144, leading to northerlies and NE'lies. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run shows a high over the UK and light winds for all. |
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