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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0555z,
9/06/05. The runs show signs of less settled conditions as low pressure approaches the UK. The blocking high will still be near Iceland and temperatures (at least in the short term) still look like being below average aloft. As the end of next week approaches some models show the block giving way, allowing Atlantic lows to bring SW'lies and a return of a typical NW/SE split - but as ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif A large high is located to the north, with low pressure east of Scotland. As a result, winds are northerlies and NW'lies over the UK, with the strongest winds over Scotland. The low fills and sinks southwards at T+144, maintaining northerlies for the UK. By day 7 the low moves away to the SE, but with pressure remaining high to the north and west the UK still lies under northerlies. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Northerlies cover the UK with a large high in the vicinity of Iceland. Low pressure deepens over the North Sea at T+144, bringing stronger northerlies to Scotland and NW'lies or NNW'lies elsewhere. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm Low pressure lies to the east of Scotland, leading to northerlies, NW'lies and westerlies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary between +3C and +4C across the UK. There's little change at T+144, but by T+168 the UK lies under a col, with light winds for most. The col persists on day 8, with SW'lies for all on day 9 due to a low to the NW. The low moves slowly NE'wards at T+240, allowing SSW'lies to cover the UK. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The London ensembles show a cool spell aloft for the weekend and first half of next week, but there's good agreeement of warmer conditions by the end of next week. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run places low pressure over the North Sea, leading to northerlies, NW'lies and NE'lies. The low moves away to the east at T+144, leaving the UK under light northerlies and NE'lies. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...090000_120.gif Westerlies cover the UK with a low over northern Scotland. A new low lies to the west at T+144, resulting in SW'lies for all. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html Low pressure covers the North Sea, with a mixture of easterlies, northerlies and westerlies over the UK. The low fills over Northern Ireland at T+144, bringing further easterlies to Scotland and SW'lies elsewhere. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows NW'lies, with low pressure to the east and a ridge to the west. Low pressure lies to the NE at T+144, leading to northerlies and NW'lies. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run shows northerlies for all with a ridge to the west. |
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