Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued 0554z,
13/06/05.

The runs continue to show a pending hot spell for SE England in particular
(albeit after some rain on Wednesday). Further north, several models show a
cloudy outlook across Northern Ireland and Scotland, on the boundary between
the warm Continental air and cooler maritime air - indeed, the ensembles for
Aberdeen are a world away from the London ones, showing much cooler
temperatures and a fair bit of rain.

Longer term the GFS brings in a northerly, something which receives some
support in the ensembles but it's too far away to be certain. As ever, more
runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure covers France, with SW'lies over the UK. A ridge moves over
England and Wales at T+144, with southerlies there and SW'lies elsewhere.
Winds fall light across England, Northern Ireland and Wales at T+168 due to
a col.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under SW'lies, although over southern England they're light due
to high pressure over the English Channel. A ridge covers much of the UK at
T+144, leading to light winds for most areas.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Warm SW'lies cover the UK, which lies between a high over Germany and a low
to the NW. 850hPa temperatures vary from +6C over NW Scotland to +14C over
SE England. The winds become lighter SW'lies and southerlies at T+144 as a
weak trough moves over Scotland. The trough deepens over the North Sea at
T+168, introducing NNW'lies across the UK. The winds become westerlies and
northerlies on day 8 with a ridge over Northern Ireland, followed by light
and variable winds on day 9 as a result of high pressure over the North Sea
and to the south of Ireland. Day 10 sees a ridge over the UK with light
winds for most.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The London ensembles still show a marked hot spell, although things don't
really heat up until Thursday now. Temperatures reach a peak on Sunday,
before falling back to average by the following Friday.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run places high pressure to the SE, leading to SW'lies at both
T+120 and T+144.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...130000_120.gif
The UK lies under SW'lies, with a ridge over southern England. The ridge
persists at T+144, bringing southerlies and SSW'lies.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
England and Wales are covered by a ridge, bringing light westerlies, with
SW'lies elsewhere. The ridge moves northwards at T+144, leading to
southerlies and SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland respectively.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows SW'lies at T+120 and T+144 as the result of a high moving
NE'wards over France at T+120 and by T+144 it covers Poland.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a high over the North Sea, leading to SSW'lies over the
UK.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued
0554z, 13/06/05.

Longer term the GFS brings in a northerly, something which receives some
support in the ensembles but it's too far away to be certain. As ever,
more runs are needed.


I hope not. We want a nice long bit of settled weather at long last.

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 13 Jun 2005 at 10:34:09, Gavin Staples wrote :

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued
0554z, 13/06/05.

Longer term the GFS brings in a northerly, something which receives some
support in the ensembles but it's too far away to be certain. As ever,
more runs are needed.

I hope not. We want a nice long bit of settled weather at long last.

Yes, that'll really help with the water shortages in southern England...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 13 Jun 2005 at 10:34:09, Gavin Staples wrote :

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued
0554z, 13/06/05.

Longer term the GFS brings in a northerly, something which receives
some
support in the ensembles but it's too far away to be certain. As ever,
more runs are needed.

I hope not. We want a nice long bit of settled weather at long last.

Yes, that'll really help with the water shortages in southern England...
--

the problem is that here in the northwest of England it feels that we have
had a pretty wet and miserable spring and early summer so far.
We could do with some fine weather, raining on us doesn't help with water
shortages in the south of England

Jim Webster

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

the problem is that here in the northwest of England it feels that we have
had a pretty wet and miserable spring and early summer so far.
We could do with some fine weather, raining on us doesn't help with water
shortages in the south of England

I'm sick of hearing about water shortages in the south!

I want a prolonged period of dry & settled weather too, and if this
hurts the south, then too bad!
They will just have to accept that they live in the driest and most
densely populated part of the country that shows every sign of
becoming even more densely populated in the coming decades.

A few days ago, the first hosepipe bans were announced and there
was this guy whinging on about how he couldn't fill up his kids'
paddling pool. Million in Africa have no access to clean drinking water
and he's moaning about his kids' paddling pool.........

Either cut down on extravagant water usage or be prepared to pay
much higher water bills to secure further supplies.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

the problem is that here in the northwest of England it feels that we
have
had a pretty wet and miserable spring and early summer so far.
We could do with some fine weather, raining on us doesn't help with water
shortages in the south of England

I'm sick of hearing about water shortages in the south!

I want a prolonged period of dry & settled weather too, and if this
hurts the south, then too bad!
They will just have to accept that they live in the driest and most
densely populated part of the country that shows every sign of
becoming even more densely populated in the coming decades.

A few days ago, the first hosepipe bans were announced and there
was this guy whinging on about how he couldn't fill up his kids'
paddling pool. Million in Africa have no access to clean drinking water
and he's moaning about his kids' paddling pool.........

Either cut down on extravagant water usage or be prepared to pay
much higher water bills to secure further supplies.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html




If a national water grid had been constructed after the 1976 drought then
Britain would not have this problem. Typical of this country not to think
beyond the length of the noses of a poltician.

Gavin.

In article ,
Gavin Staples writes:
If a national water grid had been constructed after the 1976 drought then
Britain would not have this problem. Typical of this country not to think
beyond the length of the noses of a poltician.

I suppose that it was a question of weighing up the very large cost of
such a project against projections of future levels of water use and
future climate. I don't think that the case for building a national
water grid following 1976 was so clear cut as you're implying. Back
then, the existence of GW wasn't so well established as it is now, and
it wasn't obvious that we'd face so severe a drought again within our
lifetimes. It's easy to be wise with the benefit of hindsight.

The counter argument, of course, is that it was fairly certain that the
demand for water would continue to grow, so that even if the climate
didn't change we were eventually likely to run into trouble.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

Gavin Staples wrote:


If a national water grid had been constructed after the 1976 drought then
Britain would not have this problem. Typical of this country not to think
beyond the length of the noses of a poltician.

But be fair, politicians have incredibly long noses.

Graham