Hi,

I can not find Will Hand's excellent forecast, so would appreciate some
advice.

Any ideas of the weather forecast for Coventry, Midlands, on Sunday 19th
June 2005
from 0900 to 1300 ?
Precipitation is the main factor, followed by temperature and wind speed.

I am participating in a radio communications link for a fun run & am
wondering what we should wear.
The latest info I have is, may be hot, is this correct & if so should I
expect CB's doing their worst ?

Many thanks,

Peter Ashby

"Peter Ashby" Hi,

I can not find Will Hand's excellent forecast, so would appreciate some
advice.

Any ideas of the weather forecast for Coventry, Midlands, on Sunday 19th
June 2005
from 0900 to 1300 ?
Precipitation is the main factor, followed by temperature and wind speed.

I am participating in a radio communications link for a fun run & am
wondering what we should wear.
The latest info I have is, may be hot, is this correct & if so should I
expect CB's doing their worst ?

Many thanks,

Peter Ashby


I was going to post a 'heads up' for this weekend (before Joe does ;-)),so
I'll have a go.
Unfortunately the consistency in the GFS ensemble falls apart on the
19th,due to the timing of a cold front in the west pushing a plume of
warm,moist air eastwards.
BTW why does this always happen at weekends?
Current GFS runs have a plume of high theta w air over England with CAPE
1000J/Kg -this almost certainly overdoes things as the ground will be very
dry ,even with substantial rain on Wednesday.Timing of any thundery
developments will depend highly sensitively on upper air development and
subsequent motion of the cold front.Probably elevated thunderstorms are
likely Sat night/Sunday morning,surface based storms are very uncertain ATM.
I would go for light clothing ,for warm and humid conditions pre front with
rainproofs handy .If you're lucky the front will have already pushed through
the Midlands in which case it will be fresher,but not cold ,and dry ,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

"Waghorn" wrote in message


Unfortunately the consistency in the GFS ensemble falls apart on the
19th,due to the timing of a cold front in the west pushing a plume of
warm,moist air eastwards.

The overall spell is for wet weather but if the ensembles fall apart or
in other words the accepted methods prove uncertain; ignore them and go
by the weather that runs from the 16th on.

This is what it "should be" the time of the lunar phase on the 15th June
is 01:22; this is very changeable weather with the overall pattern one
of heavy rain and winds. If that occurs and persists, no... hang on...

If the met men are wrong and I am wrong there will be a massive
earthquake.

If the met men are right and I am wrong there will be a massive typhoon
or hurricane.

If the met men are wrong and I am right, watch this space....

....I may remember in time to be of some limited use (if only for the
humour of it all.)

(At least you won't be held up for twenty minutes because of Michael
Jackson. Let's just hope there isn't an altercation on the set of Big
Brother or that another landlord of the Old Vic gets killed on the day.)


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message
news:92bf1f21d69f0725f9ff02e9d0ed1198.45219@mygate .mailgate.org

If the met men are wrong and I am wrong there will be a massive
earthquake.

Speaking of which:

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_zgbu.html

How am I doing so far with this run?

6th of June time of phase = 21:55 = Wet, or deep lows at least.



--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

"Waghorn" "Peter Ashby" Hi,

Any ideas of the weather forecast for Coventry, Midlands, on Sunday 19th
June 2005
from 0900 to 1300 ?

..If you're lucky the front will have already pushed through
the Midlands in which case it will be fresher,but not cold ,and dry ,

--
Having had a further look at the 0Z run and a closer look at other models
this seems unlikely as most seem to agree on the major trough remaining to
the west and the cold front dying in situ over western England.However,there
still looks like a risk of elevated storms Sat night/Sun morning especially
if a short wave trough runs NE-impossible to accurately forecast at this
range.


--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...

I was going to post a 'heads up' for this weekend (before Joe does ;-)),so
I'll have a go.

regards,
David

Unfortunately I haven't had much time to assess it. Interview in London on
Friday so preparing a little for that, as well as killing off brain cells in
celebrating end of exam season :-)

Joe