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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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On Wed, 15 Jun 2005 07:50:54 GMT, "Dave.C"
wrote: In my local garden centre I saw a very nice climber which had small bluebell like flowers. I'd not seen it before although it said "grown in the UK since Victorian times". What surprised me was that it said it was "Frost hardy to 2C". I would have called that frost tender. Also, the forecaster on News 24 (Jay?)said that today's rainfall would be beneficial to gardens in the SE and also help the resevoirs. I wouldn't have thought it would make much difference to either if there is only the predicted 5-10mm. You could have some more exotic flora in a few years' time, according to this: http://news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=651912005 Green and pleasant land may warm to Mediterranean look JOHN VON RADOWITZ PARTS of England could resemble the Mediterranean scenes painted by Vincent Van Gogh in 50 to 100 years, scientists say. As climate change brings warmer, drier summers, olive groves, vines and fields of sunflowers are likely to become common features of south-east England. Experts doubt that the traditional country garden will survive in the southern counties. The rolling lawns and herbaceous borders that are so much a part of Hampshire, Sussex and Kent may have to make way for palms, shrubs and eucalyptus, while native woodlands of oak, beech, ash and Scots pine from Cornwall to Scotland might be at risk. Experts will discuss the impact of global warming on Britain's landscape at a two-day conference starting today at the University of Surrey in Guildford. They forecast that by 2050 summer temperatures in the south-east will be 1.5 to 3C warmer than today, while average summer rainfall could fall by 35 per cent. If the current rate of warming continues, summers could be as much as 6C warmer by the 2080s. Professor Jeff Burley, director of the Oxford Forestry Institute at Oxford University, said: "It's already happening - you can already see fields of sunflowers. The scene is going to change." _____________________ Martin Dave |
#2
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In message , JPG
writes On Wed, 15 Jun 2005 07:50:54 GMT, "Dave.C" wrote: In my local garden centre I saw a very nice climber which had small bluebell like flowers. I'd not seen it before although it said "grown in the UK since Victorian times". What surprised me was that it said it was "Frost hardy to 2C". I would have called that frost tender. Also, the forecaster on News 24 (Jay?)said that today's rainfall would be beneficial to gardens in the SE and also help the resevoirs. I wouldn't have thought it would make much difference to either if there is only the predicted 5-10mm. You could have some more exotic flora in a few years' time, according to this: http://news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=651912005 Green and pleasant land may warm to Mediterranean look JOHN VON RADOWITZ PARTS of England could resemble the Mediterranean scenes painted by Vincent Van Gogh in 50 to 100 years, scientists say. As climate change brings warmer, drier summers, olive groves, vines and fields of sunflowers are likely to become common features of south-east England. Experts doubt that the traditional country garden will survive in the southern counties. The rolling lawns and herbaceous borders that are so much a part of Hampshire, Sussex and Kent may have to make way for palms, shrubs and eucalyptus, while native woodlands of oak, beech, ash and Scots pine from Cornwall to Scotland might be at risk. Experts will discuss the impact of global warming on Britain's landscape at a two-day conference starting today at the University of Surrey in Guildford. They forecast that by 2050 summer temperatures in the south-east will be 1.5 to 3C warmer than today, while average summer rainfall could fall by 35 per cent. If the current rate of warming continues, summers could be as much as 6C warmer by the 2080s. I'd be interested to see the mean surface pressure and upper contour patterns that go with these predictions. Warmer and drier suggests an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic southerlies i.e. relatively high pressure over the near continent. That might mean that further east there would be a cooling due to a higher frequency of northerlies. I have no problem with the theory that global warming will result in climate change (and undoubtedly is already) but I have a lot of difficulty in accepting that the subject is sufficiently well understood to enable fairly detailed predictions of the changes that will occur at a spot location (on a global scale SE England is a spot location). Norman (delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail) -- Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l. England |
#3
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![]() "Norman Lynagh" wrote in message ... In message , JPG writes They forecast that by 2050 summer temperatures in the south-east will be 1.5 to 3C warmer than today, while average summer rainfall could fall by 35 per cent. If the current rate of warming continues, summers could be as much as 6C warmer by the 2080s. I'd be interested to see the mean surface pressure and upper contour patterns that go with these predictions. Warmer and drier suggests an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic southerlies i.e. relatively high pressure over the near continent. That might mean that further east there would be a cooling due to a higher frequency of northerlies. But don't forget that the north will warm too. So the northerlies will not be as cold as they are today. I have no problem with the theory that global warming will result in climate change (and undoubtedly is already) but I have a lot of difficulty in accepting that the subject is sufficiently well understood to enable fairly detailed predictions of the changes that will occur at a spot location (on a global scale SE England is a spot location). This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from global warming being discussed on this newsgroup. It is not surprising then, that you think no one has given it much thought. However there are scientists who have been thinking about those problems for a considerable time. In 1991, nearly 15 years ago, the Department of the Environment published a book entitled "The Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom". Basically what will happen is the climate zones will move north, with the Sahara returning to savannah, and the north shore of the Mediterranean becoming a desert. (The current drought in Spain is only a taster.) The Mediterranean climate belt will move north into the south of England. Meanwhile the increase in global temperature will have resulted in more evaporation from the oceans and hence there will be more frequent and heavier rain storms in that receive rain.. Cheers, Alastair. |
#4
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Felly sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald : This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from global warming being discussed on this newsgroup. It has been discussed quite recently, but in the context of GW switching the gulf stream off. The Mediterranean climate belt will move north into the south of England. This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!). So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing ![]() Adrian -- Adrian Shaw ais@ Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber. Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac. http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk |
#5
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![]() "Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message ... Felly sgrifennodd Alastair McDonald : This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from global warming being discussed on this newsgroup. It has been discussed quite recently, but in the context of GW switching the gulf stream off. I was talking about the science, not the wild speculation of a few oceanographers who do not know the first thing about weather. They seem to think that the because the THC is global it can affect the climate globally. What they fail to understand is the half of the flow of the THC is at the bottom of the ocean where it has no effect on the climate what so ever. They are unaware that it is the diversion of the westerlies by the Rockies over the warmer seas of the souhtern North Atlantic which causes the prevailing south westerly air flow over the British Isles - not the Coriolis effect. And it is this air flow which keeps Britain warmer than Newfoundland, not the North Atlantic Drift which passes to the north of Britain. The idea that global warming will make Britain colder is just pseudoscience. I thought that the film "The Day After Tomorrow" demostrated that! The Mediterranean climate belt will move north into the south of England. This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!). So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing ![]() Well you could buy a ready made ski resort in Scotland. I believe they are going cheap now that the snow is diappearing :-) But if I were you, I would be looking for a south facing slope on a Welsh mountain side, and start taking lessons in viticulture. Cheers, Alastair. |
#6
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I really hope someone else who knows better than me will comment on this
(below); it certainly goes against a lot that I've been taught in the past. Adrian Felly sgrifennodd Alastair McDonald : I was talking about the science, not the wild speculation of a few oceanographers who do not know the first thing about weather. They seem to think that the because the THC is global it can affect the climate globally. What they fail to understand is the half of the flow of the THC is at the bottom of the ocean where it has no effect on the climate what so ever. They are unaware that it is the diversion of the westerlies by the Rockies over the warmer seas of the souhtern North Atlantic which causes the prevailing south westerly air flow over the British Isles - not the Coriolis effect. And it is this air flow which keeps Britain warmer than Newfoundland, not the North Atlantic Drift which passes to the north of Britain. The idea that global warming will make Britain colder is just pseudoscience. I thought that the film "The Day After Tomorrow" demostrated that! The Mediterranean climate belt will move north into the south of England. This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!). So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing ![]() Well you could buy a ready made ski resort in Scotland. I believe they are going cheap now that the snow is diappearing :-) But if I were you, I would be looking for a south facing slope on a Welsh mountain side, and start taking lessons in viticulture. Cheers, Alastair. (the first time I've ever seen fit to top-post!) -- Adrian Shaw ais@ Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber. Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac. http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk |
#8
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![]() "Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message ... I really hope someone else who knows better than me will comment on this (below); it certainly goes against a lot that I've been taught in the past. Adrian You might be interested in this http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=159 But if the warming does cause a slowdown in the THC, and that cools the northern hemisphere, then with a cooler NH the THC will start up again :-). So those, in the discussion I have link to above, would be better off arguing about the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin, IMHO :-( Cheers, Alastair. |
#9
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![]() "Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message ... I really hope someone else who knows better than me will comment on this (below); it certainly goes against a lot that I've been taught in the past. Adrian I'd have look through stuff here- http://prudence.dmi.dk/ http://prudence.dmi.dk/public/publications/index.html eg- Beniston, M., and D. B. Stephenson 2004. Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions, Global and Planetary Change, in press BTW AFAIK most recent climate simulations only weaken the THC in the next 100yrs or so,one or two even strengthen it ,but there's a lot more work to be done, -- regards, David add '17' to Waghorne to reply |
#10
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Quoting from message
posted on 15 Jun 2005 by Adrian D. Shaw I would like to add: Felly sgrifennodd Alastair McDonald : The Mediterranean climate belt will move north into the south of England. This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!). So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing ![]() There were some naturalists on Radio4 the other night (?Monday) becoming quite excited about the change in flora and fauna, such as the possible return of the Camberwell Beauty butterfly. They were eagerly anticipating a rise in temperature - made a change from the usual doom and gloom merchants. -- ....ElaineJ... Briallen Gifts/Cards catalogue at http://www.briallen.co.uk ....Kinetic... Corn Dollies, Cards, Coasters, Mousemats, Kids' Tshirts ...StrongArm.. Jones' Pages at http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/ejones ....RISC PC... Corwen, North Wales; Steam Traction;CMMGB&Yukon Volunteers. |
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