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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Tuesday. Issued 0546z,
17/06/05. The warm weather continues across much of England and Wales, with the models showing high pressure close by for a week at least. Southern and eastern areas of the UK look like staying largely dry (except Tuesday), whereas the further north you are the cloudier it will be (with a greater chance of rain too). ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure covers the UK, with light winds for all. Much the same is true at T+144, although SW'lies affect Scotland from a low to the south of Iceland. Westerlies cover Northern Ireland and Scotland at T+168, with light winds elsewhere. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Westerlies cover the UK with a low to the north and a ridge over the English Channel. The ridge builds over the UK at T+144 with light winds for all. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm A low lies to the west of Scotland, with westerlies and SW'lies across the UK as a result. 850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over northern Scotland to +9C over SE England. A ridge brings WNW'lies to most at T+144, followed by southerlies and SW'lies as it moves over eastern England at T+168. England and Wales lie under a col on day 8 with SW'lies and southerlies elsewhere, followed by westerlies and NW'lies for all on day 9. The winds strengthen at T+240 as a weak ridge moves over the UK. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The London ensembles show the current hot conditions aloft persisting for over a week, albeit with a slight decrease in temperatures on Tuesday as a front moves through, bringing some rain. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows SW'lies across the UK with high pressure to the SW. The high moves NE'wards over England and Wales at T+144, bringing SW'lies and WSW'lies elsewhere. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...170000_120.gif A low lies to the SE of Iceland, with westerlies for all. A ridge moves over Ireland at T+144, leading to NE'lies for England and Wales, with northerlies and NW'lies over Scotland. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html A large high covers England, Northern Ireland and Wales, bringing light winds there and SW'lies for Scotland. The high builds over the North Sea at T+144, leading to southerlies and SW'lies over the UK. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows a very similar picture to the Japanese run, that of light winds (except Scotland) at T+120 with southerlies and SW'lies at T+144. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif High pressure covers much of the UK, leading to SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with NE'lies over SE England. |
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