Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Tuesday. Issued 0554z,
18/06/05.

The largely settled conditions over England and Wales will persist for much
of next week, albeit with temperatures a few degrees lower past Monday.
Further north there'll be considerably more cloud and rain at times.

The models differ quite widely regarding the position of highs however and a
couple of them even show a reversal, with warm and sunny weather for
Scotland and cooler, cloudier weather over southern England especially.

Longer term there are signs of much cooler air moving over the UK as winds
from a northerly quarter take hold, but that's a week or more away. As ever,
more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge covers England, Ireland and Wales, with westerlies for Scotland. The
ridge builds to bring light winds for all at T+144, with a shallow trough
bringing further light winds at T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Light winds and a high cover the UK, with the exception of northern Scotland
which lies under NW'lies. The high builds over northern Scotland at T+144,
introducing easterlies to southern England and Wales.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Light westerlies cover the UK, with high pressure over the English Channel
and a ridge further north. 850hPa temperatures vary from +1C over northern
Scotland to +13C over SW England. The high moves northwards at T+144 to
bring light easterlies, with stronger SE'lies and easterlies at T+168 due to
a deepening low to the WSW. The low deepens in situ at T+192, with
southerlies and easterlies as a result. The low continues to deepen on day 9
and sinks slowly SE'wards, allowing NE'lies to cover the UK. The winds
become northerlies on day 10 as a ridge topples eastwards towards the UK.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The London ensembles show we're at the peak of the heat over the weekend,
with temperatures aloft falling five degrees or so over the working week.
Beyond that the ensemble mean goes below the long-term average and there are
signs of some rain.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a ridge over the UK and light winds for most
(northern Scotland is once again the exception, with westerlies). A ridge
moves over Scotland at T+144, resulting in NE'lies and ENE'lies elsewhere.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...180000_120.gif
Northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK, due to a high to the west. The high
moves over England and Wales at T+144, with SW'lies and westerlies
elsewhere.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Light winds cover the UK at both T+120 and T+144, with high pressure
initially to the south and latterly to the west.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows a trough over the North Sea and NW'lies for all. The NW'lies
persist at T+144 as pressure builds from the west.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
Westerlies are affecting Northern Ireland and Scotland, with a ridge
bringing light winds elsewhere.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Tuesday. Issued
0554z, 18/06/05.


Longer term there are signs of much cooler air moving over the UK as winds
from a northerly quarter take hold, but that's a week or more away. As
ever, more runs are needed.


I thought it may be too good to last, but at least this is some time away.
There's plenty of time for things to change.

Gavin.

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message


I thought it may be too good to last, but at least this is some time away.
There's plenty of time for things to change.

Go easy on the wishes; one man's change in the weather is another man's
catastrophe at the moment.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 18 Jun 2005 at 05:59:57, Darren Prescott wrote
:
Longer term there are signs of much cooler air moving over the UK as winds
from a northerly quarter take hold, but that's a week or more away.

I cling to that scenario desperately.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham