Warning issued by the MetOffice:

ADVANCE WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, South West Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West England,
North East England, The Midlands, Wales, South West England, Central
Southern England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 07:01 on Wednesday, 22 December 2004.
This is the first warning of disruption due to Heavy Snow.
The Met Office is forecasting a much colder spell for Christmas.
This will follow a couple of mild, wet and, at times very windy weather
during which gusts to 70mph or more have the potential to cause disruption
in some northern areas.
Snow showers are forecast to develop in the northwest on Christmas Eve and
these will spread to many other northern and western areas on Christmas Day,
becoming heavier and perhaps more prolonged as they do so. There is an
increasing risk of some snow showers in the east on Boxing Day as winds turn
more to the north. There is a possibility of disruption to travel with the
risk of several centimetres of snow accumulating in places, especially over
hills.
Confidence in a cold spell for Christmas is moderate to high but there are
still doubts in the detail, whilst marked localised variations in snowfall
are likely, with some areas escaping.
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met
Office.
Transmitted by the Met Office at 07:01 on Wednesday 22 December

"nguk..." wrote in message
...
Warning issued by the MetOffice:

ADVANCE WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, South West Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West
England,
North East England, The Midlands, Wales, South West England, Central
Southern England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 07:01 on Wednesday, 22 December 2004.
This is the first warning of disruption due to Heavy Snow.
The Met Office is forecasting a much colder spell for Christmas.
This will follow a couple of mild, wet and, at times very windy weather
during which gusts to 70mph or more have the potential to cause disruption
in some northern areas.
Snow showers are forecast to develop in the northwest on Christmas Eve and
these will spread to many other northern and western areas on Christmas
Day,
becoming heavier and perhaps more prolonged as they do so. There is an
increasing risk of some snow showers in the east on Boxing Day as winds
turn
more to the north. There is a possibility of disruption to travel with the
risk of several centimetres of snow accumulating in places, especially
over
hills.
Confidence in a cold spell for Christmas is moderate to high but there are
still doubts in the detail, whilst marked localised variations in snowfall
are likely, with some areas escaping.
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met
Office.
Transmitted by the Met Office at 07:01 on Wednesday 22 December


so in other words, no snow then

Si

Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

sigh

Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

sigh


Its not a case of "Damned if you do, damned if you dont", its a matter of
being accurate.

Too many false-positives is just as bad as false-negatives. We all know
about the famous false-negatives "Don't worry, there isnt going to be a
hurricane". Ever since that famous forecast of 1987, we are continually
getting false-positives.
Its rather dangerous as people will lose faith in the severe weather
wanings.

One of these days, we are going to get a major "true-positive" of a
destructive storm, but people will not be properly prepared because of
their lack of faith in the forecast.

Brendan

Its not a case of "Damned if you do, damned if you dont", its a matter of
being accurate.

Too many false-positives is just as bad as false-negatives. We all know
about the famous false-negatives "Don't worry, there isnt going to be a
hurricane". Ever since that famous forecast of 1987, we are continually
getting false-positives.
Its rather dangerous as people will lose faith in the severe weather
wanings.

One of these days, we are going to get a major "true-positive" of a
destructive storm, but people will not be properly prepared because of
their lack of faith in the forecast.

Brendan

Point well made Brendan. Unfortunately it's "the cover your back" society we
live in these days.

Dave

"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
Point well made Brendan. Unfortunately it's "the cover your back" society
we
live in these days.

Dave

*sigh*.

I can assure you and Brendan that much agonising goes on before these
warnings "of events that are likely to lead to *disruption*" are issued and
during the subsequent update process. To suggest that the duty chief
forecaster issues them to cover their backs is, to put it frankly, utter
twaddle.

Jon.

In article ,
Brendan DJ Murphy writes:

Its not a case of "Damned if you do, damned if you dont", its a matter of
being accurate.

Too many false-positives is just as bad as false-negatives. We all know
about the famous false-negatives "Don't worry, there isnt going to be a
hurricane". Ever since that famous forecast of 1987, we are continually
getting false-positives.
Its rather dangerous as people will lose faith in the severe weather
wanings.

Well, on this occasion they have said:
"Confidence in a cold spell for Christmas is moderate to high but there
are still doubts in the detail, whilst marked localised variations in
snowfall are likely, with some areas escaping."

Which seems fair enough. The trouble is, of course, that a lot of people
will never read that far. And the media who pick up on the story will
probably omit the caveat.

One of these days, we are going to get a major "true-positive" of a
destructive storm, but people will not be properly prepared because of
their lack of faith in the forecast.

Possibly but, given that advance warnings can never be guaranteed 100%
accurate or 100% precise, the solution isn't obvious.
--
John Hall
"Home is heaven and orgies are vile,
But you *need* an orgy, once in a while."
Ogden Nash (1902-1971)