I've been studying the GFS runs. Today's 06z are just being updated.

Each successive run puts the 528dm line further and further north for
Christmas Day 00z.

I was never filled with optimism about a white Christmas and now I'm feeling
even less so.

Sorry everyone.

Once again, I do hope I'm wrong

Brendan

Hi i think the runs are great!!!
GFS is a low resolution model and should only
be used for trend and large details. Fax charts
are what we should be looking at now and they all
look fantastic! Obviously the Southeast
Uk has a good chance of missing out
in the snow because it so far south but even
still the fax charts show numerous troughs
moving south Chin Up think of it this
way we have a very high chance of Having
a WHITE Christmas!!!!!

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
I've been studying the GFS runs. Today's 06z are just being updated.

Each successive run puts the 528dm line further and further north for
Christmas Day 00z.

I was never filled with optimism about a white Christmas and now I'm
feeling
even less so.

Sorry everyone.

Once again, I do hope I'm wrong

Brendan

Brendan, the general evolution appears consistent to me, i.e. deep cold air
flooding south with the emphasis on convective activity in the north and
west.

I'd keep your eye on these now, as Scandyhigh suggests :-
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2a.gif
The troughs shouldn't be taken literally but give some indication of where
to expect areas of organised/enhanced convection.

http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/mete...22/MANBP69.PNG
apply sea temps of at least 10C on the above forecast profile for 21Z on the
24th and we're looking at CB to around 350mb/circa 26000ft, heavy snow/hail
showers (probably a bit sleety over sea and coastal areas) and the odd
thunderstorm for good measure.

Interesting times ahead.

Jon.

Yeah, obviously the general evolution is cold air moving south!, but what is
also obvious is that each consecutive run has been less cold! Sure it is
interesting but at least agree with the facts!
The fact is (at the moment) 'each run is looking less impressive.' Lets get
this optimistic junk out the way and start talking facts\science.
Come on Jon, expect more from you. Your sounding like one of those TWO forum
posters.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Brendan, the general evolution appears consistent to me, i.e. deep cold
air
flooding south with the emphasis on convective activity in the north and
west.

I'd keep your eye on these now, as Scandyhigh suggests :-
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2a.gif
The troughs shouldn't be taken literally but give some indication of where
to expect areas of organised/enhanced convection.

http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/mete...22/MANBP69.PNG
apply sea temps of at least 10C on the above forecast profile for 21Z on
the
24th and we're looking at CB to around 350mb/circa 26000ft, heavy
snow/hail
showers (probably a bit sleety over sea and coastal areas) and the odd
thunderstorm for good measure.

Interesting times ahead.

Jon.

Hmm.. disagree with the mood of this post. More optimistic junk.... Let me
guess you ar from the TWO forums.
Look at the GFS run and you can see it floods the Big Azores high in very
quickly, killing of any chance of real snow for Eastern counties on boxing
day. Earlier 'models' were not showing this happening as quickly. As always,
the realistic time frame shows all.
The 12z run is a SHOCKER! but to be expected ;( , as i mentuioned in
previous posts.
The Azores high is all you need to look at .. if it's moving in things get
warmer, cold spells get shorter!
Each run *is* looking *less* impressive!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
wrote in message
oups.com...
Hi i think the runs are great!!!
GFS is a low resolution model and should only
be used for trend and large details. Fax charts
are what we should be looking at now and they all
look fantastic! Obviously the Southeast
Uk has a good chance of missing out
in the snow because it so far south but even
still the fax charts show numerous troughs
moving south Chin Up think of it this
way we have a very high chance of Having
a WHITE Christmas!!!!!

"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message .. .
Yeah, obviously the general evolution is cold air moving south!

we agree on something then.

, but what is
also obvious is that each consecutive run has been less cold!

Each run of which model ? I've been looking at quite a few.. clearly there's
some variation in detail, the potential wave in the south for example, but
the overall theme/evolution remains the same as far as I'm concerned. I
won't look for fine detail until T+24.

Compare the thickness pattern on the current T+72 to last night's T+96, not
much in it really and not "less cold" :-

http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack3.gif

http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2.gif

Come on Jon, expect more from you. Your sounding like one of those TWO
forum
posters.

I wouldn't know as I've never read it, Danny and don't intend to start now.
USW is more then enough for me :-)

Jon.

Hi Jon,
Cool, lets hope for some interesting weather the next few days!
Danny.
----------------------------------------------------------

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message .. .
Yeah, obviously the general evolution is cold air moving south!

we agree on something then.

, but what is
also obvious is that each consecutive run has been less cold!

Each run of which model ? I've been looking at quite a few.. clearly
there's
some variation in detail, the potential wave in the south for example, but
the overall theme/evolution remains the same as far as I'm concerned. I
won't look for fine detail until T+24.

Compare the thickness pattern on the current T+72 to last night's T+96,
not
much in it really and not "less cold" :-

http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack3.gif

http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2.gif

Come on Jon, expect more from you. Your sounding like one of those TWO
forum
posters.

I wouldn't know as I've never read it, Danny and don't intend to start
now.
USW is more then enough for me :-)

Jon.

"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message .. .
Hi Jon,
Cool, lets hope for some interesting weather the next few days!
Danny.

Indeed, there's a lot going on now and before the 25th. From your
perspective I'd be watching developments on the predicted wave on Christmas
Eve very closely http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack1.gif

Jon.

On Wed, 22 Dec 2004 20:12:13 -0000, "Jon O'Rourke"
wrote:

"danny(west kent)" wrote in
message .. .
Hi Jon,
Cool, lets hope for some interesting weather the next few days!
Danny.

Indeed, there's a lot going on now and before the 25th. From your
perspective I'd be watching developments on the predicted wave on Christmas
Eve very closely http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack1.gif

FWIW I, too, haven't noticed any backing off of the models from the
cold/snow scenario. I remain sceptical, however, that there will be
any significant snow on low ground near the South Coast and this is
borne out by the MetO "disruption probability" map you pointed out
earlier i.e. 30% not only for the coastal areas but well inland in the
South, too. Sounds about right to me... 30% i.e. it (disruption from
snow) "probably" won't happen anywhere near me.

I do like a nice surprise though... bring back the "thundersnow".

--
Dave
Solent Riviera.

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...

I do like a nice surprise though... bring back the "thundersnow".


You wouldn't be thinking of this would you, Dave ?

http://www.metbrief.com/1845_280104.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20040129.gif

Jon. (tropic of east Devon)