http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

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Gavin Staples.

Horseheath. Cambridge, UK. 93m ASL.
House to Let. For details see on my website.
www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

"Silence is one of the hardest arguments to refute". ~Josh Billings

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Not got off to a very good start though, their forecast. It says pulse of
rain moving up from the south and intensifying over the S.E. Looks to me
that it's doing it's usual and petering out and splitting up as it
approaches the Thames Estuary. There must be some geophysical reason for
this as it's happpened at least ten times this year.

Dave
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
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http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

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Gavin Staples.

Horseheath. Cambridge, UK. 93m ASL.
House to Let. For details see on my website.
www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

"Silence is one of the hardest arguments to refute". ~Josh Billings

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2005.
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Disturbingly reminicient of 1988, as a pretty good June gave way to a
breakdown at the end of the month.. and a very deep low for the time of year
over the weekend 2/3 July.
IIRC, the weather stayed broke for the rest of the summer and we then had to
wait till (I think) the second half of September for any settled weather.

Lets hope that history isn't about to repeat itself.. though I guess we do
need the rain.

Jim, Bournemouth


"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
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Gavin Staples.

Horseheath. Cambridge, UK. 93m ASL.
House to Let. For details see on my website.
www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

"Silence is one of the hardest arguments to refute". ~Josh Billings

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
2005.
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In message , Jim Smith
writes
Disturbingly reminicient of 1988, as a pretty good June gave way to a
breakdown at the end of the month.. and a very deep low for the time of year
over the weekend 2/3 July.
IIRC, the weather stayed broke for the rest of the summer and we then had to
wait till (I think) the second half of September for any settled weather.

Lets hope that history isn't about to repeat itself.. though I guess we do
need the rain.

Jim, Bournemouth

Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a
further increase in August. The amount of increase from June to July
increases across the country from SE to NW. July and August are
typically unsettled. Lengthy spells of warm, dry, settled weather in
those months are the exception rather than the rule.

One of the reasons for the "invention" of Spain as a holiday destination
was the so-called "poor" weather of the typical British July and August
i.e. the main holiday months.

There have, of course, always been occasional summers with unusual
amounts of dry and very warm weather. One that I remember well from my
childhood in western Scotland was 1955 when there were peat fires on the
moors. Whether or not global warming will result in an increase in the
frequency of summers in Britain with long spells of very warm and dry
weather remains to be seen but it would come as no surprise to me if
July and August this year turned out to be unsettled, but that is most
certainly not a forecast :-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
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Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Norman Lynagh wrote:
In message , Jim Smith
writes
Disturbingly reminicient of 1988, as a pretty good June gave way to a
breakdown at the end of the month.. and a very deep low for the time of year
over the weekend 2/3 July.
IIRC, the weather stayed broke for the rest of the summer and we then had to
wait till (I think) the second half of September for any settled weather.

Lets hope that history isn't about to repeat itself.. though I guess we do
need the rain.

Jim, Bournemouth

Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a
further increase in August. The amount of increase from June to July
increases across the country from SE to NW. July and August are
typically unsettled. Lengthy spells of warm, dry, settled weather in
those months are the exception rather than the rule.

That's what text books always seem to say, but doesn't seem to be borne
out in practice. June actually seems to be the worst summer month, the
most prone to unseasonable weather, hang-overs from early spring.
August has been average to good in 2003, 2002, 1998, 1997 and only bad
in 2004 in the past ten years. By contrast "off" Junes have occurred in
2002, 2000, 1998 and 1997. July has been a bit nondescript lately, but
was frequently (more than not) warm and sunny in the 90s and late 80s,
and only bad once every 5 years or so.

Quite why metcheck seem to see this weekend's blip as "exciting" I
don't know though. If you like grey skies and non-thundery rainfall, I
suppose it is, rather. Luckily it would appear to be just a blip with
better conditions by this time next week and hints of a high for the
days around the 10th.

Nick

Also encouragingly reminiscent of 1996, when October arrived three
months early before the weather realised it was midsummer again and an
average mix of highs and lows returned for the rest of the summer, with
two week-long heatwaves still to come and generally acceptable weather
the rest of the time. I'd say 1996 was a typical northwest European
summer.

Nick

Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a
further increase in August. The amount of increase from June to July
increases across the country from SE to NW. July and August are
typically unsettled. Lengthy spells of warm, dry, settled weather in
those months are the exception rather than the rule.

That's what text books always seem to say, but doesn't seem to be borne
out in practice. June actually seems to be the worst summer month, the
most prone to unseasonable weather, hang-overs from early spring.
August has been average to good in 2003, 2002, 1998, 1997 and only bad
in 2004 in the past ten years.

1999? Drenching wet, wetter than 2004 round here.

By contrast "off" Junes have occurred in
2002, 2000, 1998 and 1997. July has been a bit nondescript lately, but
was frequently (more than not) warm and sunny in the 90s and late 80s,
and only bad once every 5 years or so.

This month here in Shrewsbury has been for me the best June since 1992.
That led into a dire July and August, like 1988. There was that run of
3 awful Junes 1997-8-9, 2000 and 2001 both had a couple of hot days but
a lot of dull dreary ones, 2002 was pretty poor, 2004 a month of two
halves- decent to start, bad at the end.

Edmund

In article ,
Norman Lynagh writes:
Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one
of the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a
further increase in August. The amount of increase from June to July
increases across the country from SE to NW. July and August are
typically unsettled. Lengthy spells of warm, dry, settled weather in
those months are the exception rather than the rule.

That certainly used to be the case, but things seemed to have changed
rather over the last couple of decades, with our Julys and Augusts
having tended to become drier, at least in the south. At least, that is
my strong impression, without having done any research to back it up.
--
John Hall
Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk."
Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)

Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a significant
upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a further increase
in August. The amount of increase from June to July increases across the
country from SE to NW.

Down here in Devon, this June seems to have been one of the best I have ever
known. My memory of most Junes is cool and unsettled with 1983, 1989, 1995
and 2003 being the exceptions.

Studying the rainfall patterns for this part of the world, July and August
are the driest months, reasons given by some literature is that it is due to
less thundery activity when compared to the rest of the UK. I would be more
inclined to think that it was due to the SW of England being nearer and
under slightly more influence of that oh-so-close Azores high pressure which
seems to haunt with intent just to the south and west of the UK during these
months.
__________________
Nick G
Thorverton, Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

In message , Nick G
writes
Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a significant
upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a further increase
in August. The amount of increase from June to July increases across the
country from SE to NW.

Down here in Devon, this June seems to have been one of the best I have ever
known. My memory of most Junes is cool and unsettled with 1983, 1989, 1995
and 2003 being the exceptions.

Studying the rainfall patterns for this part of the world, July and August
are the driest months, reasons given by some literature is that it is due to
less thundery activity when compared to the rest of the UK. I would be more
inclined to think that it was due to the SW of England being nearer and
under slightly more influence of that oh-so-close Azores high pressure which
seems to haunt with intent just to the south and west of the UK during these
months.
__________________
Nick G
Thorverton, Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

I don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods
a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
Bude 48 72 75
Exeter 48 55 69
Falmouth 58 72 77
Hartland Pt 50 76 83
Ilfracombe 56 82 92
Newquay 47 72 70
Plymouth 53 70 77

For 1931-60 June was clearly the driest of the 3 summer months. There
may well have been a change in more recent years - Figures anyone?

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England